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21/05/2011 | India's state politics: Red dusk

The Economist Staff

A landmark in the politics of West Bengal. Nationally, some confusing signals.

 

NEWS travels slowly in parts of India. Two decades after the rest of the world sent Communists packing, the voters of West Bengal have at last followed suit. On May 13th the results from a series of big state elections, affecting nearly 230m people across India, brought an expected historic landslide: the Marxists who had run West Bengal for 34 unbroken years were unceremoniously turfed out.

The wonder is that it took so long. The Communists’ support among rural voters was based on 30-year-old land reforms. Kolkata (Calcutta) and other cities have missed out on India’s recent boom. Last-ditch efforts to lure investors, famously Tata Motors, to special economic zones foundered as the state government failed to get farmers to give up land.

Mamata Banerjee, until now the national railways minister, did most to slay the bewildered Communist dragon. Her Trinamul Congress scooped 226 seats in the state assembly, in alliance with the Congress party that runs the federal government, compared with just 62 for the “left front”. Running West Bengal, a state of 90m, will be harder than populist campaigning. Already post-election violence has killed at least eight Communist activists, despite Ms Banerjee’s appeals for restraint. She has bright plans and advisers. But investors will be wary. She made her name defending farmers’ land-rights and led the at times violent campaign that scuppered Tata’s flagship project to build the Nano micro car in the state, which in turn deterred other businesses. She is an unlikely figure now to persuade farmers they must, after all, give up scarce land to industry. For her allies in Congress, her success is not likely to have made a volatile partner any more emollient.

The Communists also lost the southern state of Kerala, where they had ruled for the past five years. Kerala tends to follow the “anti-incumbency” trend in states: power alternates. That Congress only squeaked into power should provoke some soul-searching. In Kerala and elsewhere, candidates promoted by the party’s youngish leader-in-waiting, Rahul Gandhi, did especially badly. He has yet to show that he is a strong election campaigner—the main role of those with the Gandhi name, after all.

But he has shown flashes of inspiration. On May 11th he rode pillion as a motorcycle whisked him unnoticed, before dawn, to villages in Uttar Pradesh, near Delhi. There, say locals (though some have since retracted), police have been murdering farmers who refuse to give up land for road-building. Mr Gandhi has taken up their cause, and even managed to get himself briefly arrested. He blames Congress’s opponent, the state’s populist chief minister, Mayawati.

In Tamil Nadu, a large southern state, Congress’s local ally (and national coalition partner), the DMK, was routed as voters vented their anger over a telecom-licensing scandal. By contrast in Assam, a north-eastern state troubled by militants, Congress swept back to power, apparently because voters approve of its peace efforts.

Unpicking lessons from such state elections is notoriously tricky. An optimistic analysis is that Indian voters are growing less loyal to parties or leaders who claim a following based on who they are (through their caste affiliation, say), rather than what they do. Voters look less tolerantly on rulers who perform badly. They have returned incumbents—such as Nitish Kumar’s government in Bihar, a poor northern state, last year—who are good managers and bring better schools, hospitals and roads, or those who bring more stability, as in Assam. By contrast, poorly performing rulers, eg, in West Bengal and Tamil Nadu, have been sent packing.

Such a trend, if true, would be an encouraging sign of a maturing electorate. However, it is belied by another one: many voters also seem more smitten by populist individuals than by parties setting out coherent policies. For example, few in West Bengal can spell out what the energetic Ms Banerjee stands for. In Tamil Nadu Jayaram Jayalalitha, a former actress, wowed voters with promises of free rice and other goodies. They made her chief minister for the third time.

By contrast, the strongest opposition party at the national level, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), picked up just 0.6% of all assembly seats returned in these polls. The BJP retorts that it was campaigning largely beyond its heartland (the Hindu “cowbelt” in the north). But that, too, points to a discouraging fragmentation in Indian politics: politicians and parties wildly popular in one state often fail utterly to appeal beyond their home regions. The BJP had pointed to success in Tamil Nadu’s neighbour Karnataka in 2008 as evidence that it could branch out southward. Only it and the Communists have in recent times tried to rival Congress as parties that can appeal nationally. Both did dreadfully this time around.

A general election may well not be held until 2014. These state polls probably say little that is directly relevant to them. Before 2009, for example, Congress fared woefully in a series of state polls, provoking dire predictions for the party’s national prospects. Yet it romped back into power with an increased majority. And for all Mr Gandhi’s shortcomings as a campaigner, Congress’s rivals have yet to find a candidate for prime minister with comparable crowd-pulling power. These were not good election results for Congress. But they were worse for its opponents.

The Economist (Reino Unido)

 


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10/02/2010|
08/02/2010|
08/02/2010|
08/02/2010|
28/01/2010|
25/01/2010|
20/01/2010|
20/01/2010|
16/01/2010|
16/01/2010|
15/01/2010|
15/01/2010|
11/01/2010|
11/01/2010|
10/01/2010|
07/01/2010|
03/01/2010|
03/01/2010|
03/01/2010|
17/12/2009|
15/12/2009|
15/12/2009|
13/12/2009|
13/12/2009|
28/11/2009|
28/11/2009|
28/11/2009|
28/11/2009|
27/11/2009|
27/11/2009|
27/11/2009|
27/11/2009|
27/11/2009|
27/11/2009|
21/11/2009|
21/11/2009|
18/11/2009|
18/11/2009|
16/11/2009|
16/11/2009|
30/10/2009|
30/10/2009|
11/10/2009|
10/10/2009|
10/10/2009|
07/10/2009|
07/10/2009|
04/10/2009|
30/09/2009|
30/09/2009|
27/09/2009|
27/09/2009|
27/09/2009|
22/09/2009|
20/09/2009|
18/09/2009|
18/09/2009|
18/09/2009|
16/09/2009|
16/09/2009|
16/09/2009|
08/09/2009|
07/09/2009|
06/09/2009|
06/09/2009|
05/09/2009|
05/09/2009|
26/08/2009|
21/08/2009|
19/08/2009|
19/08/2009|
15/08/2009|
15/08/2009|
15/08/2009|
11/08/2009|
11/08/2009|
11/08/2009|
11/08/2009|
19/07/2009|
19/07/2009|
18/07/2009|
18/07/2009|
27/03/2009|
22/03/2009|
22/03/2009|
27/01/2009|
27/01/2009|
27/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
11/01/2009|
06/12/2008|
06/12/2008|
06/12/2008|
06/12/2008|
23/11/2008|
23/11/2008|
16/11/2008|
16/11/2008|
04/11/2008|
04/11/2008|
03/11/2008|
03/11/2008|
24/10/2008|
24/10/2008|
24/10/2008|
24/10/2008|
15/09/2008|
15/09/2008|
15/09/2008|
15/09/2008|
15/09/2008|
15/09/2008|
06/09/2008|
06/09/2008|
05/09/2008|
05/09/2008|
05/09/2008|
05/09/2008|
01/09/2008|
01/09/2008|
01/09/2008|
01/09/2008|
22/08/2008|
22/08/2008|
17/08/2008|
17/08/2008|
16/08/2008|
16/08/2008|
28/07/2008|
28/07/2008|
28/07/2008|
28/07/2008|
28/07/2008|
28/07/2008|
19/07/2008|
19/07/2008|
24/05/2008|
24/05/2008|
03/05/2008|
03/05/2008|
29/04/2008|
11/02/2008|
05/01/2008|
09/12/2007|
18/11/2007|
10/11/2007|
10/11/2007|
06/11/2007|
06/11/2007|
06/09/2007|
26/08/2007|
25/08/2007|
11/07/2007|
16/06/2007|
16/06/2007|
10/06/2007|
10/06/2007|
19/05/2007|
19/05/2007|
19/05/2007|
19/05/2007|
24/04/2007|
24/04/2007|
14/04/2007|
14/04/2007|
05/04/2007|
05/04/2007|
05/04/2007|
28/02/2007|
28/02/2007|
05/02/2007|
05/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
29/01/2007|
29/01/2007|
29/01/2007|
29/01/2007|
11/01/2007|
11/01/2007|
11/01/2007|
11/01/2007|
27/12/2006|
27/12/2006|
27/12/2006|
27/12/2006|
27/12/2006|
27/12/2006|
20/12/2006|
20/12/2006|
17/11/2006|
30/09/2006|
28/07/2006|
12/04/2006|
12/04/2006|
12/04/2006|
06/03/2006|
21/02/2006|
17/02/2006|
31/01/2006|
10/01/2006|
28/12/2005|
31/10/2005|
26/09/2005|
29/08/2005|
11/08/2005|
08/08/2005|
24/06/2005|
24/06/2005|
24/06/2005|
03/04/2005|
03/04/2005|
03/04/2005|
03/04/2005|

ver + notas
 
Center for the Study of the Presidency
Freedom House