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23/09/2011 | Strife in Yemen - No easy way out of a bloody mess

The Economist Staff

The Arab world’s poorest country is suffering another bout of violence—with no end to the turmoil in sight.

 

CONTINUING clashes in Yemen’s capital, Sana’a, have left at least 70 dead and hundreds injured. But the sudden upsurge in violence has not brought the stricken, impoverished country at the heel of the Arabian peninsula any closer to ending eight months of tense political stalemate. The scale of the bloodshed, plus persistent unrest elsewhere in the country, is instead amplifying fears that its stalled revolution may slide into all-out civil war.

The protracted stand-off has pitted the ruling party, backed by army units led by clansmen of President Ali Abdullah Saleh, against a motley coalition that includes thousands of youths inspired by revolutions elsewhere in the Arab world, secular opposition parties, Islamist groups and defectors from the national army. Since March, when snipers loyal to Mr Saleh killed 52 unarmed demonstrators in a single day, protests had been confined mainly to limited areas of Sana’a while negotiators sought to coax the president into retirement. Mr Saleh, who seized power in 1978, has so far balked, despite narrowly surviving a bomb in June that left him severely burned and forced him to fly for medical treatment in Saudi Arabia, where he remains.

The latest violence erupted on September 18th when protesters marched towards areas of Sana’a controlled by Mr Saleh’s elite guards. Loyalist units, commanded by the president’s son and two nephews, responded with intense fire, deploying snipers, anti-aircraft guns and mortars, some of which crashed into the protesters’ encampment. Unarmed protesters, joined by defecting soldiers and armed tribesmen, fought back in different parts of the capital over the next two days, overrunning at least one base of the Republican Guard and forcing the airport to close briefly for the first time since the unrest began. On September 21st Mr Saleh’s men reportedly sealed roads into the capital, in an ominous sign of preparation for a showdown.

The protesters’ decision to try to break the stalemate, despite diplomatic talk of a looming breakthrough in negotiations, reflected various frustrations. These include anger over a deteriorating economy, worry at signs that the president’s men have been extensively rearming and suspicions that foreign powers, including Saudi Arabia and the United States, still back Mr Saleh because of his declared opposition to jihadist groups linked to al-Qaeda, which remains active in parts of southern Yemen. Opponents have long accused Mr Saleh of using the al-Qaeda threat to win foreign sympathy. His troops recently declared success in chasing jihadists from the southern town of Zinjibar, which they had occupied since June (see map).

Well before the outbreak of protests eight months ago, Yemen was spiralling into chaos. It has rising rates of child malnutrition and alarming declines in reserves of its two main resources, oil and water. Intractable rebellions gnawed at its fringes even as factions wrestled for power at the centre, letting al-Qaeda terrorists thrive amid the disorder. Mr Saleh stood accused of amassing power and wealth for his immediate family, nimbly wielding oil revenues and foreign aid to perpetuate his 33-year-long hold on the state.

In February there was initial optimism when thousands took to the streets demanding Mr Saleh’s resignation, erecting a tent city in Sana’a’s Change Square that is still in place. Following the sniper attacks in March, the 20,000-man First Armoured Brigade, commanded by General Ali Mohsen, long a close comrade of Mr Saleh, joined the rebels. The president lost another ally in May, when the powerful Ahmar clan, which combines extensive business interests with populist Islamist politics, switched sides amid running battles that culminated in the shelling of the family’s main compound. Many assumed that the near-miss attempt on Mr Saleh’s life would put paid to his ambitions to hang on. Many also reckoned the Saudis, who see Yemen as their backyard, would stop Mr Saleh going home.

But Mr Saleh, a former tank commander famed for his wily survival tactics, has continued to insist on his constitutional privileges. This reflects not just stubbornness but confidence in his control of Yemen’s air force and elite army corps that have benefited from anti-terrorist training and equipment supplied by Western donors. Three times he has refused at the last minute to sign a deal, brokered by the six-country, Saudi-led Gulf Co-operation Council and endorsed by Western governments, that calls for his exit in exchange for immunity from prosecution for himself and his family, followed by early elections. Earlier this month he appeared to inch closer to accepting it, authorising his vice-president, Abd Rabbo Mansour, to sign on his behalf. The opposition saw this as just another delaying tactic.

There is no easy way out of Yemen’s mess. Even if Mr Saleh and his family depart peacefully, which seems unlikely, they will leave behind a country torn by division and suspicion. Many street revolutionaries are wary of the old political elite, seeing the likes of General Mohsen and the Ahmars as meddlers who aim to profit from Mr Saleh’s downfall. General Mohsen’s past association with extremist Sunni factions makes him anathema to Houthi rebels in the north, who adhere to the Zaydi branch of Shia Islam and fought a bloody six-year war mainly spearheaded by his First Armoured Brigade. Southern separatists, meanwhile, tend to see the strife in distant Sana’a as a power struggle between northern warlords. With electricity flickering, food prices rising and fuel scarce, it is no wonder that the UN is warning of a looming humanitarian disaster.

The Economist (Reino Unido)

 



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13/12/2009|
28/11/2009|
28/11/2009|
28/11/2009|
28/11/2009|
27/11/2009|
27/11/2009|
27/11/2009|
27/11/2009|
27/11/2009|
27/11/2009|
21/11/2009|
21/11/2009|
18/11/2009|
18/11/2009|
16/11/2009|
16/11/2009|
30/10/2009|
30/10/2009|
11/10/2009|
10/10/2009|
10/10/2009|
07/10/2009|
07/10/2009|
04/10/2009|
30/09/2009|
30/09/2009|
27/09/2009|
27/09/2009|
27/09/2009|
22/09/2009|
20/09/2009|
18/09/2009|
18/09/2009|
18/09/2009|
16/09/2009|
16/09/2009|
16/09/2009|
08/09/2009|
07/09/2009|
06/09/2009|
06/09/2009|
05/09/2009|
05/09/2009|
26/08/2009|
21/08/2009|
19/08/2009|
19/08/2009|
15/08/2009|
15/08/2009|
15/08/2009|
11/08/2009|
11/08/2009|
11/08/2009|
11/08/2009|
19/07/2009|
19/07/2009|
18/07/2009|
18/07/2009|
27/03/2009|
22/03/2009|
22/03/2009|
27/01/2009|
27/01/2009|
27/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
11/01/2009|
06/12/2008|
06/12/2008|
06/12/2008|
06/12/2008|
23/11/2008|
23/11/2008|
16/11/2008|
16/11/2008|
04/11/2008|
04/11/2008|
03/11/2008|
03/11/2008|
24/10/2008|
24/10/2008|
24/10/2008|
24/10/2008|
15/09/2008|
15/09/2008|
15/09/2008|
15/09/2008|
15/09/2008|
15/09/2008|
06/09/2008|
06/09/2008|
05/09/2008|
05/09/2008|
05/09/2008|
05/09/2008|
01/09/2008|
01/09/2008|
01/09/2008|
01/09/2008|
22/08/2008|
22/08/2008|
17/08/2008|
17/08/2008|
16/08/2008|
16/08/2008|
28/07/2008|
28/07/2008|
28/07/2008|
28/07/2008|
28/07/2008|
28/07/2008|
19/07/2008|
19/07/2008|
24/05/2008|
24/05/2008|
03/05/2008|
03/05/2008|
29/04/2008|
11/02/2008|
05/01/2008|
09/12/2007|
18/11/2007|
10/11/2007|
10/11/2007|
06/11/2007|
06/11/2007|
06/09/2007|
26/08/2007|
25/08/2007|
11/07/2007|
16/06/2007|
16/06/2007|
10/06/2007|
10/06/2007|
19/05/2007|
19/05/2007|
19/05/2007|
19/05/2007|
24/04/2007|
24/04/2007|
14/04/2007|
14/04/2007|
05/04/2007|
05/04/2007|
05/04/2007|
28/02/2007|
28/02/2007|
05/02/2007|
05/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
29/01/2007|
29/01/2007|
29/01/2007|
29/01/2007|
11/01/2007|
11/01/2007|
11/01/2007|
11/01/2007|
27/12/2006|
27/12/2006|
27/12/2006|
27/12/2006|
27/12/2006|
27/12/2006|
20/12/2006|
20/12/2006|
17/11/2006|
30/09/2006|
28/07/2006|
12/04/2006|
12/04/2006|
12/04/2006|
06/03/2006|
21/02/2006|
17/02/2006|
31/01/2006|
10/01/2006|
28/12/2005|
31/10/2005|
26/09/2005|
29/08/2005|
11/08/2005|
08/08/2005|
24/06/2005|
24/06/2005|
24/06/2005|
03/04/2005|
03/04/2005|
03/04/2005|
03/04/2005|

ver + notas
 
Center for the Study of the Presidency
Freedom House