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18/11/2012 | Israel and Gaza - Storm after the calm

The Economist Staff

WITH the five-day aerial battle between Israel and Hamas poised to escalate into all-out ground war, the unlikely figure of Egypt's Islamist president, Muhammad Morsi, is emerging in Israeli minds as the one regional leader who can bring about a credible ceasefire.

 

Mr Morsi declared on November 17th that there were "indications"—but no certainty—that the two sides could use indirect diplomacy to end the present round of violence. Mr Morsi is in close contact with the US and European governments. He held talks in Cairo with Turkey's prime minister, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, and the Qatari ruler, Sheikh Hamad bin Khalifa al-Thani, both of whom are anxious to contribute to cease-fire diplomacy.

The Egyptian president, a long-time leader of the Muslim Brotherhood, spoke of "the Israeli side", referring to Israel by its name instead of using some deprecatory sobriquet like "the Zionist enemy". That is small consolation for an Israeli establishment still hankering after the much easier rapport it had with Egypt's ousted Mubarak regime, especially in matters military. Israel uttered ominous warnings during the early months of the "Arab Spring" about the dangers of the long-banned Muslim Brotherhood rising to power in Egypt. Mr Morsi's election victory elicited further dour prognostications. Like Hamas, its ideological and political acolyte, the Brotherhood does not recognise Israeli sovereignty.

But Mr Morsi has walked a careful line between Israel's unpopularity with his domestic constituency and Egypt's strategic and political interest in maintaining its 33-year-old peace treaty with the Jewish state. This caution was in evidence when, in response to Israel's air attacks in Gaza last week, he chose to recall his ambassador for consultations—a relatively moderate form of diplomatic protest. His dispatch of the prime minister, Hisham Kandil, on a "solidarity visit" to Gaza on November 16th was a clear signal of Egypt's desire to mediate, and was recognised as such by Israeli officials and public alike.

Hence, the moment—brief, alas—of relief and hope that palpably swept the country on the morning of November 18th. People awoke to reports of an almost entirely peaceful night in the south, and to local and foreign media speculation of an imminent ceasefire to be brokered by Egypt. No rockets from Gaza disturbed these early morning reveries.

The night had not passed peacefully in Gaza, however. Israeli warplanes bombed rocket launch-sites and other Hamas targets. Palestinian medical sources reported at least two deaths and many injuries. Overall Gaza deaths stand at around 50, half of them non-combatants.

The near-silence on the Israeli side was shattered at breakfast time with a multiple-rocket attack on the southern town of Ashkelon. Two missiles penetrated the "Iron Dome" defence system and fell in the town, causing minor injuries and extensive damage. In mid-morning, for the third day running, a missile was fired from Gaza toward Tel Aviv. It was brought down by Iron Dome; a piece of burning shrapnel fell onto a car and destroyed it.

Hope inevitably dimmed. The Israeli army, meanwhile, is building up its forces for a ground invasion, if the government so decides. Tanks and artillery are being hauled to jumping-off sites. The government has approved the mobilisation of up to 75,000 reservists. Binyamin Netanyahu, the prime minister, announced at cabinet during the morning that "the IDF [Israel Defence Force] is prepared for a significant expansion of its operations."

Mr Netanyahu reported that more than 1,000 "terrorist targets" in Gaza had been bombed since Wednesday, when the air force killed the top Hamas military commander, Ahmad Jabari. "We are exacting a heavy price from Hamas and the [other] terrorist organisations," the prime minister said.

If Mr Morsi does succeed in knitting together a ceasefire soon, both Hamas and Israel will claim success in the subsequent battle of perceptions. For Hamas, the lasting image will be of Israeli citizens of Tel Aviv and of Jerusalem running for cover. Despite the huge disparity in fire-power, Hamas will claim to have made good on its threats to bring large parts of Israel within range of its rockets.

For Israel, the image that its government will seek to project will be of the Hamas missiles being shot out of the sky time after time by the Israeli-developed, American-financed Iron Dome. Not all of them, granted. Some got through even in the areas where the IDF's five operational Iron Dome batteries were deployed. But the defence system has amply proved itself, in the Israeli view, and the government will now allocate emergency funding to cover all major population centres with Iron Dome batteries.

The Economist (Reino Unido)

 


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27/11/2009|
27/11/2009|
27/11/2009|
27/11/2009|
27/11/2009|
27/11/2009|
21/11/2009|
21/11/2009|
18/11/2009|
18/11/2009|
16/11/2009|
16/11/2009|
30/10/2009|
30/10/2009|
11/10/2009|
10/10/2009|
10/10/2009|
07/10/2009|
07/10/2009|
04/10/2009|
30/09/2009|
30/09/2009|
27/09/2009|
27/09/2009|
27/09/2009|
22/09/2009|
20/09/2009|
18/09/2009|
18/09/2009|
18/09/2009|
16/09/2009|
16/09/2009|
16/09/2009|
08/09/2009|
07/09/2009|
06/09/2009|
06/09/2009|
05/09/2009|
05/09/2009|
26/08/2009|
21/08/2009|
19/08/2009|
19/08/2009|
15/08/2009|
15/08/2009|
15/08/2009|
11/08/2009|
11/08/2009|
11/08/2009|
11/08/2009|
19/07/2009|
19/07/2009|
18/07/2009|
18/07/2009|
27/03/2009|
22/03/2009|
22/03/2009|
27/01/2009|
27/01/2009|
27/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
11/01/2009|
06/12/2008|
06/12/2008|
06/12/2008|
06/12/2008|
23/11/2008|
23/11/2008|
16/11/2008|
16/11/2008|
04/11/2008|
04/11/2008|
03/11/2008|
03/11/2008|
24/10/2008|
24/10/2008|
24/10/2008|
24/10/2008|
15/09/2008|
15/09/2008|
15/09/2008|
15/09/2008|
15/09/2008|
15/09/2008|
06/09/2008|
06/09/2008|
05/09/2008|
05/09/2008|
05/09/2008|
05/09/2008|
01/09/2008|
01/09/2008|
01/09/2008|
01/09/2008|
22/08/2008|
22/08/2008|
17/08/2008|
17/08/2008|
16/08/2008|
16/08/2008|
28/07/2008|
28/07/2008|
28/07/2008|
28/07/2008|
28/07/2008|
28/07/2008|
19/07/2008|
19/07/2008|
24/05/2008|
24/05/2008|
03/05/2008|
03/05/2008|
29/04/2008|
11/02/2008|
05/01/2008|
09/12/2007|
18/11/2007|
10/11/2007|
10/11/2007|
06/11/2007|
06/11/2007|
06/09/2007|
26/08/2007|
25/08/2007|
11/07/2007|
16/06/2007|
16/06/2007|
10/06/2007|
10/06/2007|
19/05/2007|
19/05/2007|
19/05/2007|
19/05/2007|
24/04/2007|
24/04/2007|
14/04/2007|
14/04/2007|
05/04/2007|
05/04/2007|
05/04/2007|
28/02/2007|
28/02/2007|
05/02/2007|
05/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
29/01/2007|
29/01/2007|
29/01/2007|
29/01/2007|
11/01/2007|
11/01/2007|
11/01/2007|
11/01/2007|
27/12/2006|
27/12/2006|
27/12/2006|
27/12/2006|
27/12/2006|
27/12/2006|
20/12/2006|
20/12/2006|
17/11/2006|
30/09/2006|
28/07/2006|
12/04/2006|
12/04/2006|
12/04/2006|
06/03/2006|
21/02/2006|
17/02/2006|
31/01/2006|
10/01/2006|
28/12/2005|
31/10/2005|
26/09/2005|
29/08/2005|
11/08/2005|
08/08/2005|
24/06/2005|
24/06/2005|
24/06/2005|
03/04/2005|
03/04/2005|
03/04/2005|
03/04/2005|

ver + notas
 
Center for the Study of the Presidency
Freedom House