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09/11/2010 | Yemen's local and global terrorism - No quick fixes

The Economist Staff

Fighting terrorism in Yemen requires patience and partners .

 

JUST as mist often cloaks its spiky mountain peaks, Yemen tends to fade from outsiders’ view until an alarming event there commands sudden interest. The foiling of al-Qaeda’s Halloween plot to sneak two parcel bombs onto aircraft bound for America is just such an attention-grabber.

The attackers hid the devices in ink cartridges inside computer printers and sent them by scheduled courier services from the Yemeni capital, Sana’a, addressed to synagogues in Chicago. The plan may have been to explode them en route, perhaps as the plane was landing. That highlights a security hole in global transport (see article) as did a separate series of primitive bombs sent, apparently by Greek leftists, to the German chancellor Angela Merkel and other European targets.

The accuracy of the tip-off that prompted the search for the Yemeni bombs, and the inter-agency teamwork that located them in cargo sheds in Dubai and Britain are a welcome success in international counter-terrorism and cause of much back-patting. The clue apparently came from a former al-Qaeda fighter, Jabir al-Fayfi. Transferred from Guantánamo in 2006 and “deradicalised” by Saudi specialists, he rejoined al-Qaeda in Yemen; he may have been a double agent all along.

But the plot has rightly revived worries about the murderous resilience of the global terror network’s Yemeni branch. With rugged terrain and a dispersed population, fearsomely armed and bound by tribal loyalties, the country has long been an ideal refuge for bandits, rebels and, lately, terrorists. Yemenis have been prominent in al-Qaeda since the 1990s and are the biggest group in Guantánamo. Osama bin Laden is of Yemeni descent. Al-Qaeda attacked the USS Cole in Aden harbour in October 2000.

Yemen has rarely enjoyed strong central government. After taking power in 1978 its president, Ali Abdullah Saleh, relied on earnings from oil exports to arm loyalists and to buy off tribal leaders. But oil earnings tumbled and foreign investment dried up, even as the population tripled. Some 40% of Yemenis live on less than $2 a day. Child hunger is rampant. The water shortage is dire. A tribal insurrection in the north has led to six rounds of fighting since 2004 and displaced some 350,000 people. An independence movement is growing in the south, where al-Qaeda is most active,

Mr Saleh’s dealmaking has sometimes tilted towards using the terrorist threat to attract foreign sympathy and cash, while giving leeway to jihad-inclined radicals who are occasional allies against his leftist and Zaydi (a Shia sect) opponents. After September 11th 2001 Mr Saleh supported the “war on terror”. His security services (with American help) largely shut down the local branch of al-Qaeda. But a drone attack in 2002 on the group’s leaders enraged local feeling. Combined with fury over the invasion of Iraq, it made helping America politically toxic. Some analysts mark the suspicious “escape” of 23 al-Qaeda inmates from a Yemeni jail in 2006 as the start of the group’s re-emergence.

These local jihadists merged with fugitive Saudi al-Qaeda operatives to form al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) in January 2009. Since then Yemeni terrorism has grown bolder. Although its international attacks get most publicity, AQAP’s main effort has been in Yemen and, to a lesser extent, in Saudi Arabia. A suicide bomber there came close last year to killing the man who chased them out of the country, the kingdom’s head of counter-terrorism, Prince Muhammad bin Nayef.

AQAP’s local targets are government security forces, energy infrastructure and foreigners. Twice in the past year British diplomats in Sana’a have narrowly escaped assassination. Others have been less lucky. A murder campaign against Yemeni security and intelligence officers, designed to destabilise the government while avoiding the large-scale civilian casualties that helped turn the Iraqis and Saudis against al-Qaeda, has been particularly relentless. At the end of Ramadan (September 9th), AQAP published a hit list of 55 senior security officers. It has now gunned down half a dozen on the list, having previously murdered more than 60 people this year. In June its guerrillas stormed a prison in Aden and freed an unknown number of comrades. Since September, says Yemen’s president, 70 of his men have died in clashes with AQAP cells that have seen the government besieging towns, using helicopters and fighter jets.

American spooks reckon that whereas only 100 al-Qaeda fighters are left in Afghanistan and about 300 are in Pakistan, AQAP has several hundred. These comprise Yemenis, Saudis, other Arabs and an increasing number of Westerners, including Americans, such as the notorious Anwar al-Awlaki. He is linked to three people bent on attacking America—Umar Farouk Abdulmutallab (the “underpants” bomber); Nidal Malik Hasan (the perpetrator of the Fort Hood massacre); and Faisal Shahzad (the Times Square bomber)—as well as a Muslim student convicted in Britain this month for trying to kill an MP. Home-grown terrorists, radicalised by the internet and often trained abroad are a new and growing problem for America.

Some fear that Yemen could now join nearby Somalia in a zone of violent anarchy straddling one of the world’s main shipping lanes. Such alarmism may be misplaced. Until recently, Yemenis tended to dismiss their government’s talk of the threat from AQAP as scaremongering, aimed at garnering Western aid. Now the public is more sympathetic to the goal of quashing the radicals and the government has been jolted into a more serious effort.

America has boosted aid to Yemen to some $300m this year. Better armed and trained Yemeni forces have begun to take the offensive against AQAP strongholds. A more systematic and better-funded effort to enlist local tribes is also producing results. In recent weeks even the Awlaki tribe, whose most famous son is the terror chief of that name, appears to have joined government efforts to chase AQAP from its base in the southern Abyan region.

America is not showing any signs of renewed direct intervention since the attack. It maintains a discreet training and advisory mission, conducts secret operations with local forces and has fired cruise missiles at suspected terrorists. But in December 2009 an air strike was blamed for killing more than 40 civilians as well as a handful of intended targets. Another on May 25th killed a deputy provincial governor working as a mediator between the centre and some al-Qaeda elements. Local tribes protested by attacking infrastructure and closing roads to the capital.

Since then, American attacks have almost ceased, despite pressure in Washington for more dramatic action. Rick Nelson of the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a think-tank, says “tactical decisions must not undermine strategic objectives. Simply capturing and killing bad guys is not a long-term solution.”

AQAP portrays itself as the defender of the Yemeni population against a despised government and American aggression. A highly visible Western security role in Yemen risks stoking the grievances that fire al-Qaeda and others. Most counter-terrorism experts think America should mainly work with nearby rulers in Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates. All have large Yemeni populations, a stake in regional stability and the cash to ease Yemen’s many woes. This is America’s war, but not exclusively America’s fight.

The Economist (Reino Unido)

 



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09/05/2010|
01/04/2010|
01/04/2010|
31/03/2010|
31/03/2010|
31/03/2010|
28/03/2010|
28/03/2010|
28/03/2010|
20/03/2010|
12/03/2010|
12/03/2010|
12/03/2010|
08/03/2010|
07/03/2010|
06/03/2010|
05/03/2010|
03/03/2010|
03/03/2010|
28/02/2010|
21/02/2010|
19/02/2010|
14/02/2010|
11/02/2010|
11/02/2010|
10/02/2010|
08/02/2010|
08/02/2010|
08/02/2010|
28/01/2010|
25/01/2010|
20/01/2010|
20/01/2010|
16/01/2010|
16/01/2010|
15/01/2010|
15/01/2010|
11/01/2010|
11/01/2010|
10/01/2010|
07/01/2010|
03/01/2010|
03/01/2010|
03/01/2010|
17/12/2009|
15/12/2009|
15/12/2009|
13/12/2009|
13/12/2009|
28/11/2009|
28/11/2009|
28/11/2009|
28/11/2009|
27/11/2009|
27/11/2009|
27/11/2009|
27/11/2009|
27/11/2009|
27/11/2009|
21/11/2009|
21/11/2009|
18/11/2009|
18/11/2009|
16/11/2009|
16/11/2009|
30/10/2009|
30/10/2009|
11/10/2009|
10/10/2009|
10/10/2009|
07/10/2009|
07/10/2009|
04/10/2009|
30/09/2009|
30/09/2009|
27/09/2009|
27/09/2009|
27/09/2009|
22/09/2009|
20/09/2009|
18/09/2009|
18/09/2009|
18/09/2009|
16/09/2009|
16/09/2009|
16/09/2009|
08/09/2009|
07/09/2009|
06/09/2009|
06/09/2009|
05/09/2009|
05/09/2009|
26/08/2009|
21/08/2009|
19/08/2009|
19/08/2009|
15/08/2009|
15/08/2009|
15/08/2009|
11/08/2009|
11/08/2009|
11/08/2009|
11/08/2009|
19/07/2009|
19/07/2009|
18/07/2009|
18/07/2009|
27/03/2009|
22/03/2009|
22/03/2009|
27/01/2009|
27/01/2009|
27/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
11/01/2009|
06/12/2008|
06/12/2008|
06/12/2008|
06/12/2008|
23/11/2008|
23/11/2008|
16/11/2008|
16/11/2008|
04/11/2008|
04/11/2008|
03/11/2008|
03/11/2008|
24/10/2008|
24/10/2008|
24/10/2008|
24/10/2008|
15/09/2008|
15/09/2008|
15/09/2008|
15/09/2008|
15/09/2008|
15/09/2008|
06/09/2008|
06/09/2008|
05/09/2008|
05/09/2008|
05/09/2008|
05/09/2008|
01/09/2008|
01/09/2008|
01/09/2008|
01/09/2008|
22/08/2008|
22/08/2008|
17/08/2008|
17/08/2008|
16/08/2008|
16/08/2008|
28/07/2008|
28/07/2008|
28/07/2008|
28/07/2008|
28/07/2008|
28/07/2008|
19/07/2008|
19/07/2008|
24/05/2008|
24/05/2008|
03/05/2008|
03/05/2008|
29/04/2008|
11/02/2008|
05/01/2008|
09/12/2007|
18/11/2007|
10/11/2007|
10/11/2007|
06/11/2007|
06/11/2007|
06/09/2007|
26/08/2007|
25/08/2007|
11/07/2007|
16/06/2007|
16/06/2007|
10/06/2007|
10/06/2007|
19/05/2007|
19/05/2007|
19/05/2007|
19/05/2007|
24/04/2007|
24/04/2007|
14/04/2007|
14/04/2007|
05/04/2007|
05/04/2007|
05/04/2007|
28/02/2007|
28/02/2007|
05/02/2007|
05/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
29/01/2007|
29/01/2007|
29/01/2007|
29/01/2007|
11/01/2007|
11/01/2007|
11/01/2007|
11/01/2007|
27/12/2006|
27/12/2006|
27/12/2006|
27/12/2006|
27/12/2006|
27/12/2006|
20/12/2006|
20/12/2006|
17/11/2006|
30/09/2006|
28/07/2006|
12/04/2006|
12/04/2006|
12/04/2006|
06/03/2006|
21/02/2006|
17/02/2006|
31/01/2006|
10/01/2006|
28/12/2005|
31/10/2005|
26/09/2005|
29/08/2005|
11/08/2005|
08/08/2005|
24/06/2005|
24/06/2005|
24/06/2005|
03/04/2005|
03/04/2005|
03/04/2005|
03/04/2005|

ver + notas
 
Center for the Study of the Presidency
Freedom House