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07/08/2011 | Natural gas - Cleaner, not cooler

The Economist Staff

Ever more growth in the use of natural gas is welcome for many reasons. But it is not a cure for global warming.

 

THE juxtaposition of “gas” and “boom” conjures misfortune: mining disasters, Zeppelins in flame and the like. But the gas boom that the world is currently experiencing is a conflagration to be celebrated. The development of previously unexploitable shale gas as a resource in America and other countries, and the growth in the liquefied-natural-gas (LNG) market, between them promise a future in which more gas is traded more freely, to the benefit of the world at large.

Shale gas, as well as gas from other unconventional sources, will swell the ranks of gas producers. Existing producers will gain from more markets opening up as the fuel’s appeal spreads. Consumers will be less likely to find themselves tied to single producers through specific pipelines, with the unpleasant possibilities for political pressure that such arrangements bring with them (see article). Each new LNG terminal decreases Vladimir Putin’s ability to blackmail his neighbours and much of western Europe.

If the boom persists gas may take coal’s place as the world’s second-favourite fuel in just a few decades, and millions will breathe easier as a result. This is because, even were it not cheap and plentiful, gas would be attractive simply on the grounds of cleanliness. It is true that there are questions about the harm that may be done by the “fracking” process that liberates shale gas; there is an urgent need for systematic before-and-after environmental audits. But once the gas is out of the ground, it is a great deal cleaner than coal. It does not distribute neurotoxic mercury around the planet; it does not clog city air and the lungs of those who breathe it with soot and sulphur. Gas is a boon to public health.

For global warming, though, gas is a mixed blessing. It produces less carbon dioxide for a unit of energy than coal or oil, so the climate will benefit to the degree that gas replaces either of those: it will mostly substitute for coal, though some oil too, especially if gas-powered trucking becomes widespread. But if gas is plentiful and cheap enough to replace carbon-rich coal, it will also be in a position to replace carbon-free nuclear and renewables, and in doing so more carbon dioxide will be emitted than would otherwise be the case. At the same time, the availability of a cheap and relatively green fuel may push up global energy consumption. A recently published scenario from the International Energy Agency projects that by 2035 the overall increase in energy use and the reduced use of nuclear and renewables in a gas-happy world would almost perfectly balance out the gains made by burning gas instead of coal.

Sulphur's shield

And there is a further wrinkle. When floating in the air, the tiny lung-damaging particles formed from coal’s noxious sulphur emissions reflect sunlight back out into space before it has a chance to heat the surface. This cooling is strictly short-term (sulphur stays in the lower atmosphere only briefly) but it can be significant. Increased emissions of sulphur from Chinese coal burning may be part of the reason why global temperatures were fairly stable over the past decade. Replace coal with gas and such cooling is lost. Other things being equal, a world that burns more natural gas and less coal will experience more near-term warming for the same amount of carbon dioxide.

There could be a technical fix. Sulphur in the stratosphere, a natural result of volcanic eruptions, provides a lot more cooling per tonne than the coal-emitted sort. Deliberate emissions into the stratosphere (using, it should be stressed, a technology a little less disruptive than a volcano) might provide a cooling like that produced by coal without the ghastly side effects. But the world is neither scientifically nor politically ready to consider such geoengineering. A more practical way forward is to support strong carbon prices, under which gas still displaces coal but finds it harder to replace genuinely low-carbon options. Add to that support for research and development into cheaper low-carbon electricity and the storage of both energy and carbon dioxide. Another reason to welcome the gas boom is that it demonstrates how R&D, such as that which brought forth shale gas, can change the world’s energy outlook. No single technological advance solves everything. But it is good to be reminded that progress is possible.

The Economist (Reino Unido)

 


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27/11/2009|
27/11/2009|
27/11/2009|
27/11/2009|
27/11/2009|
27/11/2009|
21/11/2009|
21/11/2009|
18/11/2009|
18/11/2009|
16/11/2009|
16/11/2009|
30/10/2009|
30/10/2009|
11/10/2009|
10/10/2009|
10/10/2009|
07/10/2009|
07/10/2009|
04/10/2009|
30/09/2009|
30/09/2009|
27/09/2009|
27/09/2009|
27/09/2009|
22/09/2009|
20/09/2009|
18/09/2009|
18/09/2009|
18/09/2009|
16/09/2009|
16/09/2009|
16/09/2009|
08/09/2009|
07/09/2009|
06/09/2009|
06/09/2009|
05/09/2009|
05/09/2009|
26/08/2009|
21/08/2009|
19/08/2009|
19/08/2009|
15/08/2009|
15/08/2009|
15/08/2009|
11/08/2009|
11/08/2009|
11/08/2009|
11/08/2009|
19/07/2009|
19/07/2009|
18/07/2009|
18/07/2009|
27/03/2009|
22/03/2009|
22/03/2009|
27/01/2009|
27/01/2009|
27/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
11/01/2009|
06/12/2008|
06/12/2008|
06/12/2008|
06/12/2008|
23/11/2008|
23/11/2008|
16/11/2008|
16/11/2008|
04/11/2008|
04/11/2008|
03/11/2008|
03/11/2008|
24/10/2008|
24/10/2008|
24/10/2008|
24/10/2008|
15/09/2008|
15/09/2008|
15/09/2008|
15/09/2008|
15/09/2008|
15/09/2008|
06/09/2008|
06/09/2008|
05/09/2008|
05/09/2008|
05/09/2008|
05/09/2008|
01/09/2008|
01/09/2008|
01/09/2008|
01/09/2008|
22/08/2008|
22/08/2008|
17/08/2008|
17/08/2008|
16/08/2008|
16/08/2008|
28/07/2008|
28/07/2008|
28/07/2008|
28/07/2008|
28/07/2008|
28/07/2008|
19/07/2008|
19/07/2008|
24/05/2008|
24/05/2008|
03/05/2008|
03/05/2008|
29/04/2008|
11/02/2008|
05/01/2008|
09/12/2007|
18/11/2007|
10/11/2007|
10/11/2007|
06/11/2007|
06/11/2007|
06/09/2007|
26/08/2007|
25/08/2007|
11/07/2007|
16/06/2007|
16/06/2007|
10/06/2007|
10/06/2007|
19/05/2007|
19/05/2007|
19/05/2007|
19/05/2007|
24/04/2007|
24/04/2007|
14/04/2007|
14/04/2007|
05/04/2007|
05/04/2007|
05/04/2007|
28/02/2007|
28/02/2007|
05/02/2007|
05/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
29/01/2007|
29/01/2007|
29/01/2007|
29/01/2007|
11/01/2007|
11/01/2007|
11/01/2007|
11/01/2007|
27/12/2006|
27/12/2006|
27/12/2006|
27/12/2006|
27/12/2006|
27/12/2006|
20/12/2006|
20/12/2006|
17/11/2006|
30/09/2006|
28/07/2006|
12/04/2006|
12/04/2006|
12/04/2006|
06/03/2006|
21/02/2006|
17/02/2006|
31/01/2006|
10/01/2006|
28/12/2005|
31/10/2005|
26/09/2005|
29/08/2005|
11/08/2005|
08/08/2005|
24/06/2005|
24/06/2005|
24/06/2005|
03/04/2005|
03/04/2005|
03/04/2005|
03/04/2005|

ver + notas
 
Center for the Study of the Presidency
Freedom House