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26/10/2012 | Don’t say ''green shoots''

The Economist Staff

Britain emerges from its second recession in four years.

 

RARELY can a single statistic have been grasped so desperately. An estimate published on October 25th showed that GDP rose by 1% (an annualised rate of 4%) in the three months to the end of September. A day earlier David Cameron, the prime minister, had told MPs that “the good news will keep coming” on the economy. Mr Cameron had seen an advance release of figures and his comment seemed to break the embargo on official statistics. If so, he also broke an informal political rule: call a turning point in case it proves to be a false one.

So fitful has Britain’s economy been that any good news is understandably snatched at. The rise in GDP came after three quarters of declining output, but the latest figures exaggerate the economy’s strength just as earlier figures had made it look unduly weak. Most of the fall in output in the second quarter probably owed to the loss of a working day because of the queen’s Diamond Jubilee. The return to normal working in July may have added up to 0.5 percentage points to GDP growth.

There was an additional boost to output from the Olympic games. The statistics office said ticket sales added around 0.2 percentage points to GDP. There was also some evidence that hotels and arts venues (though not retailing) benefited from the London games. Strip out these temporary influences and the economy’s growth rate looks rather modest.

Still, other figures point to a stirring economy. Retail sales rose by 1% in the three months to the end of September, the strongest quarterly increase for more than two years. New car registrations were 8.2% higher in September than a year earlier. The unemployment rate has dropped below 8%. Even the public finances look a bit less sickly. A pick-up in revenue from national-insurance contributions and VAT in September seems to add weight to the more positive signs from the jobs market and the high street.

It is a feature of hard economic times that any good news must be qualified. Britain’s consumers have perked up in part because falling inflation is taking a smaller bite out of incomes. But inflation is set to rise again in coming months as domestic gas bills increase. Recent business surveys have had a downbeat tone. And the fragility of the euro zone remains a threat. A closely watched index of activity in the currency zone fell in October to its lowest level in three years. Such figures are a reminder that recovery might easily be knocked off course.

The Economist (Reino Unido)

 



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15/09/2008|
15/09/2008|
15/09/2008|
15/09/2008|
15/09/2008|
06/09/2008|
06/09/2008|
05/09/2008|
05/09/2008|
05/09/2008|
05/09/2008|
01/09/2008|
01/09/2008|
01/09/2008|
01/09/2008|
22/08/2008|
22/08/2008|
17/08/2008|
17/08/2008|
16/08/2008|
16/08/2008|
28/07/2008|
28/07/2008|
28/07/2008|
28/07/2008|
28/07/2008|
28/07/2008|
19/07/2008|
19/07/2008|
24/05/2008|
24/05/2008|
03/05/2008|
03/05/2008|
29/04/2008|
11/02/2008|
05/01/2008|
09/12/2007|
18/11/2007|
10/11/2007|
10/11/2007|
06/11/2007|
06/11/2007|
06/09/2007|
26/08/2007|
25/08/2007|
11/07/2007|
16/06/2007|
16/06/2007|
10/06/2007|
10/06/2007|
19/05/2007|
19/05/2007|
19/05/2007|
19/05/2007|
24/04/2007|
24/04/2007|
14/04/2007|
14/04/2007|
05/04/2007|
05/04/2007|
05/04/2007|
28/02/2007|
28/02/2007|
05/02/2007|
05/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
29/01/2007|
29/01/2007|
29/01/2007|
29/01/2007|
11/01/2007|
11/01/2007|
11/01/2007|
11/01/2007|
27/12/2006|
27/12/2006|
27/12/2006|
27/12/2006|
27/12/2006|
27/12/2006|
20/12/2006|
20/12/2006|
17/11/2006|
30/09/2006|
28/07/2006|
12/04/2006|
12/04/2006|
12/04/2006|
06/03/2006|
21/02/2006|
17/02/2006|
31/01/2006|
10/01/2006|
28/12/2005|
31/10/2005|
26/09/2005|
29/08/2005|
11/08/2005|
08/08/2005|
24/06/2005|
24/06/2005|
24/06/2005|
03/04/2005|
03/04/2005|
03/04/2005|
03/04/2005|

ver + notas
 
Center for the Study of the Presidency
Freedom House