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05/03/2011 | Libya - A civil war beckons. As Muammar Qaddafi fights back, fissures in the opposition start to emerge

The Economist Staff

WHAT began as a more or less peaceful uprising is set to degenerate into a full-scale civil war. After losing a string of cities on all sides of Tripoli, his capital, Colonel Muammar Qaddafi is fighting back. The coastal strip on Libya’s east side remains firmly under control of the rebels, with their headquarters at Benghazi. The rebels beat off the colonel’s forces in their attempt to recapture Brega, an oil town west of Benghazi (see map). But the Libyan leader seems determined to retake some of the towns closer to his capital and has sent his aircraft to bomb targets in a swathe of rebel-held areas.

 

Meanwhile Western and Arab leaders pondered whether, if the bloodshed worsens, they should enforce a no-fly zone over the country in an effort to isolate and bring down the colonel (see article). The rebels, unsurprisingly, are keen on the idea. For the moment, the Americans sounded wary. The Arab League said it was not against it in principle, provided the Arabs and the African Union gave a green light. Venezuela’s president, Hugo Chávez, a friend of the Libyan leader, aired a peace plan, which few seemed likely to take seriously. As the battle intensified, speculation grew that outsiders might become more involved. American battleships assembled off the coast, while global jihadists eyed their chance to get embroiled.

In any event, the rebels’ heralded push to the west has slowed right down. Impatient rebel sons are begging their fathers to let them march on Tripoli; some 17,000 have signed up as volunteers in Benghazi alone. But it is unclear who is in charge. Civilian leaders, saying they must call the shots, mistrust the rebel soldiers, especially those bearing the rank of colonel, who question the civilians’ capacity to command. Standing on a balcony above the entrance to Benghazi’s court-house, now the rebel headquarters, an elder tells a champing crowd to expect a long struggle.

Moreover, Colonel Qaddafi still commands a band of tribal support, running down through central Libya from Sirte, where his own clan is based on the Mediterranean coast, south through the tribal lands of Oulad Suleiman to Tuareg territory near the border with Chad. “We’re facing a stalemate,” says a banker-turned-opposition leader in Beida, a conservative religious and tribal centre in the Green Mountain, north-east of Benghazi. The rebels’ priority is to fortify and hold on to Ajdabiya, a gateway between east and west.

Libya’s tribes are in a state of flux. Elders from the Zintan tribe, south-west of Tripoli, which has traditionally been allied to Colonel Qaddafi’s, have broadcast a statement on a satellite channel aligning themselves with the rebels. But Libya’s largest tribe, the Warfalla, with nearly 1m members (in a total population of nearly 7m), remains nervously part of a federation loyal to the colonel. Its members still fearfully remember the bloody punishment they got after backing an abortive coup in 1993. “Their elders still refuse to talk to us,” bemoans a rebel leader from Beida.

The civilian opposition may be doing better than the armed one. Since breaking free from the Qaddafi regime in the east, young men with paintbrushes have been whitewashing the police stations they previously torched and urging policemen to return to their posts. Others have repainted shutters on shops, which the colonel’s officials required to be a monochrome green. (“He made us hate green,” says one.) The rebels have started a newspaper, replacing the official Libyan calendar dated from the Prophet Muhammad’s death with the Gregorian one that all Libyans understand. Merchants in Benghazi’s gold market are tentatively opening their shops.

Cyrenaica, Libya’s eastern slice that was once a breadbasket of the ancient world but has since been ruined by the colonel’s eccentric economic theories, is re-establishing its trading links. Benghazi’s ice market is stacked with donated medicine and food from Egypt. Bankers say their vaults have enough cash to last a good month. Oil-refinery managers say they can still meet most of the demand, despite the disruption caused by the fighting.

In areas in rebel hands, a feared descent into chaos has not materialised. Despite a dearth of policemen, crime has not risen. Female students attending celebrations have not reported harassment. For almost two weeks, restaurateurs have been offering free tea and sandwiches. To display their new-found sense of fraternity, businessmen have helped sweep the streets. “We’ve defied Qaddafi’s claim that chaos would ensue,” says Abdel Hafiz Ghoga, an opposition spokesman in Benghazi.

Some migrant workers, without tribes to protect them, have been targeted by rebels. Vietnamese and Filipino nurses have been turfed out of their homes and have fled. But most of the 1.5m foreign workers in Libya from poor countries such as Bangladesh, whose governments were unable to arrange airlifts home, have stayed on. A Scandinavian oil man, who doubles as an honorary consul, has tried to protect dozens of Eritrean labourers cowering in a warehouse for fear they will be mistaken for the colonel’s reviled mercenaries, 60 of whom were said to have been massacred in the Green Mountain town of Shahat, after rebels captured them.

The resentful east

It is easy to see why the people of Benghazi have little love for their long-time leader. He is said to call the town ajouz al-shamta, “the old hag”. Most of its better buildings predate his rule. His plan to demolish the old Ottoman-era markets was stymied by UNESCO, the UN’s cultural arm, just before the bulldozers moved in. As a punishment, the colonel removed the city’s holiest modern shrine, to Omar Mukhtar, Libya’s anti-colonial hero, dumping it 50km (31 miles) to the south. Much of the Ottoman quarter is rutted and swamped in sewage.

But before Libya’s economy can be resuscitated, especially in the neglected east, the rebels must rebuild virtually every civil institution and win back the trust of just about every sector of society, from lawyers and doctors to soldiers and farmers.

The protesters came from all walks of life. But the revolt began when lawyers marched on the court-house to complain about the arrest of colleagues who had represented the families of 1,270 Libyans, most of them Islamists and many from Benghazi, who had been massacred by the colonel’s men in Tripoli’s Abu Salim prison in 1996. But the Islamists and secular liberals, with the shared aim of dishing the dictator, have struck up an alliance.

One early decision of this broad-based rebel movement was to retain the services of the police and to focus their ire on the ruling Qaddafi family. Municipal committees in rebel-held towns were assigned the basic tasks of humdrum administration. At a higher level, an interim “national council” has been formed, with authority over a 13-man military council overseeing the forces that defected from the colonel.

But a coherent government in the liberated zone has yet to emerge. No one is quite sure what laws should prevail. Despite banners calling on Benghazi’s merchants to reopen their shops, many are still shuttered. Children have yet to go back to school, despite a deadline for doing so. Many urban Libyans are too frightened to hang the old flag from King Idris’s time from their windows lest the military tide flows back in Colonel Qaddafi’s favour.

The first big crack in the rebel movement opened when Mustafa Abdel Jalil, who had been the colonel’s justice minister until he joined the rebels, took to the airwaves to declare himself head of a provisional government. His credentials seemed sound. He had the backing of the people of Beida, where earlier revolts had broken out. And he had a record of defying the colonel from within government.

But many of Benghazi’s lawyers, who had orchestrated the first protests, thought he had jumped the gun—and carped at the prospect of ceding a youth revolution that started in the towns of the coast to a 70-year-old tribal elder from the mountains. A day after Mr Abdel Jalil’s proclamation, they nominated an alternative spokesman, another lawyer half his age.

Despite this hiccup, the coalition has survived. Representatives of religious foundations tell journalists they want a mainly secular constitution, not one based on the Koran. A leader of the Libyan Islamic Fighting Group, a global jihadist outfit whose members were let out of prison last year, insist that the organisation, contrary to the colonel’s claim, has no truck with al-Qaeda, nor does it seek an Islamic emirate. Benghazi’s new council includes both Islamists and westernised merchants, and promises elections within six months.

But at prayer times, differences among the celebrants in front of Benghazi’s court-house do emerge. In the front rows a few hundred secular-minded youths cry “Free Libya!” and play Arab pop music over loudspeakers. Behind them, in rows 20 deep, a far bigger crowd chants prayers.

Could a post-Qaddafi Libya reflect a similar division? Based on relationships forged in the notorious Abu Salim prison, a loose Islamist front is emerging. Old-time sheikhs and graduates schooled in Salafi pietism (who seek to emulate the behaviour of the Prophet’s comrades) have teamed up with Muslim Brothers who temper their enthusiasm for sharia law with pragmatism in their dealings with non-Muslim people and governments.

The jihadists take a more rigid line, saying they will tolerate anything—as long as it does not conflict with Islam. Muhammad Busidra, a British-trained doctor freed a year ago after 21 years in Libya’s jails, who calls himself the jihadists’ lawyer, derides the colonel’s claim to be the “liberator of creed and faith” but says his ban on alcohol and cinemas should continue. The Islamists grumbled when an American-trained secular professor was given the education portfolio on the new council. Mr Busidra reassured them that it would please their Western helpers and anyway would not last long.

All in all, the Islamists are gaining ground. Mosques, hitherto closed between prayer times to limit public assembly, are open round the clock. The imams have started to preach politics, offering their pulpits to Islamists tortured by the regime. The clerics have also begun to dispense welfare. Salim Jaber, a prominent Benghazi imam appointed to the new council’s religious committee, hands out food, shifting its distribution from market to mosque. “The sheikhs will decide who deserves food—and who does not,” says an oil engineer helping with the catering.

America has permission to help

So far, both hardline Islamists and secular liberals want the Americans to enforce a no-fly zone over Libya, mainly to prevent Colonel Qaddafi from flying reinforcements of African mercenaries to his base in Tripoli. They also want the West to recognise the national council. And both want a quick end to the colonel’s regime. “If we start a guerrilla war, we’ll get help from foreign jihadists, and Libya will be another Afghanistan,” says Mr Busidra, who wants to keep jihadists out. “International opinion should move.” Lawyers, businessmen, Muslim Brothers and former exiles in the national council all say that no measures should be ruled out; the council specifically called on America to raid Colonel Qaddafi’s base in Tripoli.

But others disagree. “We’ll stop fighting the tyrant and shoot the Americans instead,” says a veteran of Libya’s war in Chad, who now mans an old anti-aircraft gun on Benghazi’s corniche. Some Islamist leaders say they may face pressure to fight American troops if they became involved. If the liberals were to endorse Western military ground action, they could soon be pilloried as foreign stooges, thus strengthening the Islamists’ hand.

Libyans have a strong jihadist tradition, going back a century to Omar Mukhtar, who conducted a holy war for two decades against the colonising Italians; he lost but remains a heroic unifying symbol. Religious, tribal and nationalist feeling is still strong. More recently, Libyan jihadists have been prominent in Iraq, where, according to a study by West Point’s Combating Terrorism Center in 2008, Libyans (nearly all from the eastern part of the country) made up a fifth of foreign jihadists, the second-largest group after the Saudis and the highest per person of any country. Sufian bin Qumu, a rebel leader in Darna, north-east of Benghazi, was once Osama bin Laden’s chauffeur.

Yet Libya before Colonel Qaddafi’s coup in 1969 combined respect for Islam with friendship towards the West. King Idris’s legitimacy rested on his leadership of the Sanussi religious order, whose flag the rebels have made their own. He co-operated with Islamists but let the British and Americans have military bases on his soil.

Most of today’s Islamists in Benghazi look to the West for help in rebuilding civil institutions, after decades of military rule. The reopening of the American cultural centre in Benghazi, says Mr Busidra, the jihadists’ lawyer, would be rather nice. But it may not happen for quite a while.

The Economist (Reino Unido)

 


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03/04/2005|
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03/04/2005|
03/04/2005|

ver + notas
 
Center for the Study of the Presidency
Freedom House