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31/10/2005 | Argentina: After Kirchner's Victory

The Economist Staff

Following a successful electoral gamble, some hard decisions for the president

 

The contest between Argentina's current first lady and her predecessor to represent the province of Buenos Aires in the national Senate was billed as “the mother of all the battles” in a mid-term election on October 23rd. When the votes were counted in this Amazonian contest, Cristina Fernández de Kirchner had won a crushing victory, by 46% to 20%, over Hilda González de Duhalde. Across the country, the candidates of Argentina's president, Néstor Kirchner, did almost as well, winning some 40% of the vote. What Argentines will now want to know is what Mr Kirchner proposes to do with his victory and whether it is the prelude to winning a second term in 2007.

Through the vehicle of his wife, the president can claim to have won the two things he wanted from the ballot. The first is a personal mandate from an election in which he was not a candidate. He had been denied such a mandate in the 2003 presidential contest when Carlos Menem, another ex-president, withdrew from a run-off ballot. The magnitude of his victory last weekend was not far short of that achieved by Mr Menem in his first mid-term election, in 1991. His candidates won 15 of a possible 16 senate seats, earning Mr Kirchner a comfortable majority in the upper house. In the 257-seat lower house, they will form by far the largest block, although he will have to negotiate with others, both inside and outside Peronism, to secure a legislative majority.

That task will be made easier by Mr Kirchner's second reason for satisfaction: he can now claim the undisputed leadership of the Peronist movement, no longer having to share this with Eduardo Duhalde, his predecessor. Buenos Aires province, home to 40% of Argentines, has long been Mr Duhalde's turf. Choosing the province as the venue for Ms Fernández's candidacy was a gamble, but one which paid off spectacularly. Mr Duhalde's congressional block has shrunk from 33 deputies to 25, and will probably decline further at the next election, for president and part of Congress, in 2007. “Kirchner hasn't killed the Duhaldes yet, but now it's a question of when, not if,” says Nicolás Ducoté of CIPPEC, a Buenos Aires think-tank.

But the election also legitimated new opponents. The strongest is Mauricio Macri, a businessman who runs Argentina's most popular football club, Boca Juniors. Mr Macri won the race for the lower house in the city of Buenos Aires, with a margin of a dozen percentage points over Elisa Carrió, a leftish lawyer, and Rafael Bielsa, Mr Kirchner's foreign minister. Mr Macri will now dispute the leadership of the centre-right with Jorge Sobisch, the governor of Neuquén province. Ms Carrió was hurt by a scandal—invented by the government, she claimed—over foreign bank accounts, but her party picked up three seats in the lower house.

Mr Kirchner, a populist nationalist, will doubtless prefer it if his main challenge in 2007 comes from the right than the left. He took office as the economy was recovering strongly from its collapse in 2001-02. He now faces a cloudier economic picture—and some unpleasant decisions that he has hitherto postponed. The biggest worry is inflation, which has crept into double digits. During the campaign, the president blamed price increases variously on Shell petrol stations and supermarkets. Keeping inflation in check probably requires either higher interest rates or allowing the peso to appreciate. Mr Kirchner has supported neither. The government will also have to deal with demands for wage increases from public employees.

A second thorny issue concerns prices charged by privatised utilities, frozen since 2002. Officials say they do not want to increase charges for residential users until 2007. Maintaining that stance may mean forgoing an agreement that would roll over some hefty debt payments to the IMF. The big question is whether, given the president's penchant for economic meddling, sufficient private investment will be forthcoming to maintain high growth.

It would be a mistake to read too much into Mr Macri's victory in Argentina's wealthiest enclave. But if the strongest challenge to Mr Kirchner does come from the right, that will give the president an incentive to tackle these issues. Starting with the selection of a new foreign minister to replace Mr Bielsa, Mr Kirchner's chances of a second term will depend on the decisions he takes in the next few months.

The Economist (Reino Unido)

 


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16/11/2009|
16/11/2009|
30/10/2009|
30/10/2009|
11/10/2009|
10/10/2009|
10/10/2009|
07/10/2009|
07/10/2009|
04/10/2009|
30/09/2009|
30/09/2009|
27/09/2009|
27/09/2009|
27/09/2009|
22/09/2009|
20/09/2009|
18/09/2009|
18/09/2009|
18/09/2009|
16/09/2009|
16/09/2009|
16/09/2009|
08/09/2009|
07/09/2009|
06/09/2009|
06/09/2009|
05/09/2009|
05/09/2009|
26/08/2009|
21/08/2009|
19/08/2009|
19/08/2009|
15/08/2009|
15/08/2009|
15/08/2009|
11/08/2009|
11/08/2009|
11/08/2009|
11/08/2009|
19/07/2009|
19/07/2009|
18/07/2009|
18/07/2009|
27/03/2009|
22/03/2009|
22/03/2009|
27/01/2009|
27/01/2009|
27/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
11/01/2009|
06/12/2008|
06/12/2008|
06/12/2008|
06/12/2008|
23/11/2008|
23/11/2008|
16/11/2008|
16/11/2008|
04/11/2008|
04/11/2008|
03/11/2008|
03/11/2008|
24/10/2008|
24/10/2008|
24/10/2008|
24/10/2008|
15/09/2008|
15/09/2008|
15/09/2008|
15/09/2008|
15/09/2008|
15/09/2008|
06/09/2008|
06/09/2008|
05/09/2008|
05/09/2008|
05/09/2008|
05/09/2008|
01/09/2008|
01/09/2008|
01/09/2008|
01/09/2008|
22/08/2008|
22/08/2008|
17/08/2008|
17/08/2008|
16/08/2008|
16/08/2008|
28/07/2008|
28/07/2008|
28/07/2008|
28/07/2008|
28/07/2008|
28/07/2008|
19/07/2008|
19/07/2008|
24/05/2008|
24/05/2008|
03/05/2008|
03/05/2008|
29/04/2008|
11/02/2008|
05/01/2008|
09/12/2007|
18/11/2007|
10/11/2007|
10/11/2007|
06/11/2007|
06/11/2007|
06/09/2007|
26/08/2007|
25/08/2007|
11/07/2007|
16/06/2007|
16/06/2007|
10/06/2007|
10/06/2007|
19/05/2007|
19/05/2007|
19/05/2007|
19/05/2007|
24/04/2007|
24/04/2007|
14/04/2007|
14/04/2007|
05/04/2007|
05/04/2007|
05/04/2007|
28/02/2007|
28/02/2007|
05/02/2007|
05/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
29/01/2007|
29/01/2007|
29/01/2007|
29/01/2007|
11/01/2007|
11/01/2007|
11/01/2007|
11/01/2007|
27/12/2006|
27/12/2006|
27/12/2006|
27/12/2006|
27/12/2006|
27/12/2006|
20/12/2006|
20/12/2006|
17/11/2006|
30/09/2006|
28/07/2006|
12/04/2006|
12/04/2006|
12/04/2006|
06/03/2006|
21/02/2006|
17/02/2006|
31/01/2006|
10/01/2006|
28/12/2005|
26/09/2005|
29/08/2005|
11/08/2005|
08/08/2005|
24/06/2005|
24/06/2005|
24/06/2005|
03/04/2005|
03/04/2005|
03/04/2005|
03/04/2005|

ver + notas
 
Center for the Study of the Presidency
Freedom House