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13/03/2011 | After the earthquake - The tension mounts

The Economist Staff

THE risk of a nuclear accident at a huge power plant in disaster-strewn north-eastern.

 

Japan has risen for a second day on March 13th. This time it involves a type of fuel known as Mox (mixed-oxide) that is considered highly experimental. The government, which is under huge pressure to deal with the tragedy created by Friday’s earthquake, is also struggling to prevent panic over the potential meltdown of a second nuclear reactor. With what looked like tears in his eyes, Naoto Kan, the prime minister, said today that Japan was facing its worst crisis since the second world war and he urged its citizens to pull together.

As if that were not enough, Japan’s seismologists say there is a high risk of more big aftershocks in the coming days. In the areas worst hit by the quake, hundreds of thousands of people have been evacuated from their homes, and food and blankets are scare.

It is currently estimated that at least 2,000 are dead and missing after Friday’s earthquake unleashed a vicious tsunami that swept Japan’s northern Pacific coast. But that figure does not take into account 10,000 who the government acknowledged on March 13th are unaccounted for in one coastal area of Miyagi prefecture, called Minamisanriku. Aerial shots from television crews show a large community that existed there has now virtually disappeared under tidal water. Elsewhere in Miyagi and Iwate prefecture, hundreds more bodies have been dumped by the tsunami, news reports say, and some 450,000 people have been made homeless.

Mr Kan almost doubled the number of Special Defence Force troops he had ordered to the area, to 100,000. But relief efforts were hampered by destroyed roads and bridges, waterlogged airports and other disrupted lines of communication. An American aircraft carrier and emergency services from other countries joined the rescue effort, which underscores how bad the situation must be. The assumed death toll, which has already doubled in 24 hours, may rise much further yet. It would not be a surprise if it exceeds the 6,500 or so killed in the 1995 Kobe earthquake.

However hard it is to come to grips with the enormous devastation, another crisis is playing out in real time: the risk of a Three-Mile-Island-style radiation leakage at a nuclear-power plant in Fukushima prefecture, 250 miles north of Tokyo. Overnight, the cooling system at the third reactor at the Fukushima No. 1 nuclear power plant failed, and on March 13th Kyodo news agency cited the plant’s operator, the Tokyo Electric Power Company (Tepco), as saying that three metres of a Mox nuclear-fuel rod had been left above the water level. That raises the risk of a meltdown of the core reactor, which could lead to a nuclear catastrophe. Disconcertingly, Japanese anti-nuclear campaigners have fiercely opposed the introduction into Japan of Mox fuel, which is a mixture of plutonium oxide and uranium oxide, arguing, among other things, that plutonium is more unsafe than enriched uranium. The fuel was first used in the Fukushima plant last year. Five other reactors spread over two Fukushima plants have also experienced trouble with their cooling systems, and two (including the Mox one) have been doused with water—and possibly permanently crippled—to prevent overheating. 

Yukio Edano, the government’s chief spokesman, said that it was possible the core reactor had been “deformed” by its exposure above water, but he denied that it was a meltdown. However, he said there were further complications. It was not clear whether the water was rising to cool the reactor, despite an injection of sea water. Pressure is also building up within the reactor, but the release valve is malfunctioning, he said. Given the potential build-up of hydrogen, he issued a warning that there could be another explosion of the type that destroyed the outer building of the plant’s first reactor on March 12th. But he said there was no danger to the thick, steel-and-reinforced-concrete container that surrounds the reactor, and he is downplaying the risk of a dangerous leak of radiation.

Mr Edano, who like Mr Kan is dressed in blue overalls to give the uniform-loving Japanese a sense of workmanship, is deftly trying to reduce the risk of panic around the country. His staff are telling foreign correspondents to reassure foreigners living in Japan that there is no need to flee Tokyo (the American ambassador has put out a similar message). The task is made harder by imprecise information on the levels of radiation that have leaked out and the dangers to the several dozen people near the Fukushima power plant who have so far been diagnosed as suffering from radiation.

Reportedly, levels of radiation have temporarily exceeded 1,000 micro sievert, which is twice the legal upper limit; but in many cases they have been little worse than an x-ray.  The government insists the radiation comes from its release of pressure from the reactor container vessels, and is not dangerous to humans. It rejects assertion that the leaks are out of control. However, there is a general mistrust among many Japanese about the authorities’ willingness to admit to a serious radiation problem if it were to occur. It might, of course, accidentally play down the risk in its efforts to avoid panic. What’s more, Tepco, which provides most of the information on its Fukushima plant, has obfuscated shockingly in the past. Its reputation is unlikely to be burnished by the fact that residents of greater Tokyo and elsewhere, as well as businesses, were told to brace for extended power cuts in coming days. The government says power supply for such areas has fallen by a quarter, from 41m kilowatts per day to 31m, because of the quake-induced disruption.

On top of those concerns, the Meteorological Agency, which on March 13th upgraded its assessment of the size of Friday’s earthquake from 8.8 to 9.0, has also warned than in the next three days, there is a 70% chance of another big quake. The huge movement of sub-sea earth at 2.46pm on Friday led to a quake at three different epicentres, along a 500km stretch of sea. This was why the quakes were felt so broadly, and why there have been such frequent aftershocks.

A slew of businesses have decided to close, in part because of disrupted supply chains, but also because of the uncertainty over access to power. Toyota, Nissan, Honda and Suzuki will idle some or all factories. But the north-east is not Japan's industrial heartland, and factories in places like Kyoto, the centre of the country's high-end technology components, have not said they plan to close on Monday. Meanwhile, in a bid to shore up the financial system and ensure suitable liquidity, the Bank of Japan provided ¥55 billion in cash to 13 banks over the weekend, in case customers line up to get money on Monday morning. Though the economic cost of the crisis is hard to see—in large part because of uncertainty about the consequences of the overheating nuclear reactors—estimates place it above the ¥10-trillion (around $120-billion) damage of the Kobe earthquake in 1995.

Perhaps bracing for further weeks of uncertainty, Tokyo residents and others have been stocking up on petrol and provisions. Pot noodles are gone from the supermarket shelves, as are bread and tins of tuna. In a nation with the best lavatories in the world, another coveted item is the damp face towel, which apparently can be used as toilet tissue if water supply is interrupted for long periods. Such are the unsubstantiated rumours flying around Tokyo, anyway. 

The Economist (Reino Unido)

 


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29/08/2010|
29/08/2010|
29/08/2010|
29/08/2010|
22/08/2010|
22/08/2010|
21/08/2010|
21/08/2010|
21/08/2010|
21/08/2010|
21/08/2010|
21/08/2010|
14/08/2010|
13/08/2010|
13/08/2010|
07/08/2010|
07/08/2010|
12/07/2010|
12/06/2010|
12/06/2010|
12/06/2010|
24/05/2010|
24/05/2010|
11/05/2010|
10/05/2010|
09/05/2010|
09/05/2010|
09/05/2010|
01/04/2010|
01/04/2010|
31/03/2010|
31/03/2010|
31/03/2010|
28/03/2010|
28/03/2010|
28/03/2010|
20/03/2010|
12/03/2010|
12/03/2010|
12/03/2010|
08/03/2010|
07/03/2010|
06/03/2010|
05/03/2010|
03/03/2010|
03/03/2010|
28/02/2010|
21/02/2010|
19/02/2010|
14/02/2010|
11/02/2010|
11/02/2010|
10/02/2010|
08/02/2010|
08/02/2010|
08/02/2010|
28/01/2010|
25/01/2010|
20/01/2010|
20/01/2010|
16/01/2010|
16/01/2010|
15/01/2010|
15/01/2010|
11/01/2010|
11/01/2010|
10/01/2010|
07/01/2010|
03/01/2010|
03/01/2010|
03/01/2010|
17/12/2009|
15/12/2009|
15/12/2009|
13/12/2009|
13/12/2009|
28/11/2009|
28/11/2009|
28/11/2009|
28/11/2009|
27/11/2009|
27/11/2009|
27/11/2009|
27/11/2009|
27/11/2009|
27/11/2009|
21/11/2009|
21/11/2009|
18/11/2009|
18/11/2009|
16/11/2009|
16/11/2009|
30/10/2009|
30/10/2009|
11/10/2009|
10/10/2009|
10/10/2009|
07/10/2009|
07/10/2009|
04/10/2009|
30/09/2009|
30/09/2009|
27/09/2009|
27/09/2009|
27/09/2009|
22/09/2009|
20/09/2009|
18/09/2009|
18/09/2009|
18/09/2009|
16/09/2009|
16/09/2009|
16/09/2009|
08/09/2009|
07/09/2009|
06/09/2009|
06/09/2009|
05/09/2009|
05/09/2009|
26/08/2009|
21/08/2009|
19/08/2009|
19/08/2009|
15/08/2009|
15/08/2009|
15/08/2009|
11/08/2009|
11/08/2009|
11/08/2009|
11/08/2009|
19/07/2009|
19/07/2009|
18/07/2009|
18/07/2009|
27/03/2009|
22/03/2009|
22/03/2009|
27/01/2009|
27/01/2009|
27/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
11/01/2009|
06/12/2008|
06/12/2008|
06/12/2008|
06/12/2008|
23/11/2008|
23/11/2008|
16/11/2008|
16/11/2008|
04/11/2008|
04/11/2008|
03/11/2008|
03/11/2008|
24/10/2008|
24/10/2008|
24/10/2008|
24/10/2008|
15/09/2008|
15/09/2008|
15/09/2008|
15/09/2008|
15/09/2008|
15/09/2008|
06/09/2008|
06/09/2008|
05/09/2008|
05/09/2008|
05/09/2008|
05/09/2008|
01/09/2008|
01/09/2008|
01/09/2008|
01/09/2008|
22/08/2008|
22/08/2008|
17/08/2008|
17/08/2008|
16/08/2008|
16/08/2008|
28/07/2008|
28/07/2008|
28/07/2008|
28/07/2008|
28/07/2008|
28/07/2008|
19/07/2008|
19/07/2008|
24/05/2008|
24/05/2008|
03/05/2008|
03/05/2008|
29/04/2008|
11/02/2008|
05/01/2008|
09/12/2007|
18/11/2007|
10/11/2007|
10/11/2007|
06/11/2007|
06/11/2007|
06/09/2007|
26/08/2007|
25/08/2007|
11/07/2007|
16/06/2007|
16/06/2007|
10/06/2007|
10/06/2007|
19/05/2007|
19/05/2007|
19/05/2007|
19/05/2007|
24/04/2007|
24/04/2007|
14/04/2007|
14/04/2007|
05/04/2007|
05/04/2007|
05/04/2007|
28/02/2007|
28/02/2007|
05/02/2007|
05/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
29/01/2007|
29/01/2007|
29/01/2007|
29/01/2007|
11/01/2007|
11/01/2007|
11/01/2007|
11/01/2007|
27/12/2006|
27/12/2006|
27/12/2006|
27/12/2006|
27/12/2006|
27/12/2006|
20/12/2006|
20/12/2006|
17/11/2006|
30/09/2006|
28/07/2006|
12/04/2006|
12/04/2006|
12/04/2006|
06/03/2006|
21/02/2006|
17/02/2006|
31/01/2006|
10/01/2006|
28/12/2005|
31/10/2005|
26/09/2005|
29/08/2005|
11/08/2005|
08/08/2005|
24/06/2005|
24/06/2005|
24/06/2005|
03/04/2005|
03/04/2005|
03/04/2005|
03/04/2005|

ver + notas
 
Center for the Study of the Presidency
Freedom House