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20/03/2018 | A fourth term for Russia’s perpetual president

The Economist Staff

Not so hard when the main opponent is barred

 

VLADIMIR PUTIN’S victory in Russia’s presidential elections on March 18th was never in any doubt. The vote was less a choice than a referendum on his rule. But even so, he got the result he wanted. With nearly all the ballots counted by the morning of the following day, Mr Putin had racked up over 76% of the vote, a record high for him, and more than ten points up on his performance last time, in 2012. Turnout, though reported to be lower than last time by exit polls on Sunday night, had conveniently risen to 68% on Monday morning, nearing the 70% goal the Kremlin had set to ensure that the poll would be regarded as a suitably strong mandate. It was also slightly higher than in 2012. “It’s very important to maintain this unity,” Mr Putin told his supporters at a victory speech. “We will think about the future of our great Motherland.”

Though there were scattered reports of ballot stuffing, the vote hardly needed to be rigged. Mr Putin ran against a field with no viable challengers, and enjoys widespread support. “This vote is to demonstrate our trust in him once again,” said Valentina Novikova, a schoolteacher from Moscow. Worried about low turnout undermining the legitimacy of the results, the Kremlin resorted to bread and circuses. A faux-festive atmosphere was manufactured at many polling places, with games, food and entertainment on hand. “There are accordions playing and they’re making shashlik [kebabs], you should come out,” one man told a friend on the phone from a Moscow schoolhouse. The opposition leader Alexei Navalny, who had been barred from running because of a fraud conviction he says was trumped up by the Kremlin, had called, seemingly to little effect, for a boycott of the elections. He now claims that the turnout figures have been inflated by as much as 18% in certain regions. (The Central Election Commission said that any violations were limited and had no effect on the outcome. Golos, an independent election monitoring outfit, reported cases of officials and factory bosses rounding up workers to vote, which probably bumped up the turnout figure.)

Mr Putin will take his victory as a mandate to continue his current course, one defined in large part by confrontation with the West. In the run-up to the vote, Mr Putin used his state-of-the-union address to engage in nuclear sabre-rattling. Recent weeks have been filled with news of the poisoning of an ex-spy, Sergei Skripal, and his daughter in Salisbury in Britain. His campaign spokesman, Andrei Kondrashov, said the accusations helped to unite the Russian people and generate higher turnout: “We need to say thank you to Great Britain because they again misread the Russian mindset.” Following the vote, Mr Putin dismissed the notion of Russian involvement as “nonsense”.

He will face little resistance or protest from a fractured opposition. The Kremlin allowed Mr Navalny to walk free on election day, and while he organised a large vote-monitoring operation, he was unable to spoil the Kremlin’s party. As the vote count rolled in, Mr Navalny sparred publicly with Ksenia Sobchak, a socialite-cum-journalist who ran carrying the opposition banner with Kremlin approval. Ms Sobchak crashed his live broadcast, imploring him to join forces in a united opposition party. “It was a grandiose fraud and you were part of it,” Mr Navalny replied. Ms Sobchak won a derisory 1.7% of the vote.

Yet while Mr Putin’s re-election operation went smoothly, his next term will be a minefield. The current constitution allows him to rule for only two consecutive terms, meaning that he will have to step aside in 2024. (When asked on Sunday whether he might consider returning in 2030, he called the question “funny”.) The Russian elite have already begun preparing for his departure, jockeying for position in a post-Putin system; the president will have to figure out how to manage a potential transition. The Kremlin also faces stagnating economic growth and calls for fresh reforms. The afterglow of victory will soon give way to a harsher reality.

The Economist (Reino Unido)

 



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06/09/2009|
05/09/2009|
05/09/2009|
26/08/2009|
21/08/2009|
19/08/2009|
19/08/2009|
15/08/2009|
15/08/2009|
15/08/2009|
11/08/2009|
11/08/2009|
11/08/2009|
11/08/2009|
19/07/2009|
19/07/2009|
18/07/2009|
18/07/2009|
27/03/2009|
22/03/2009|
22/03/2009|
27/01/2009|
27/01/2009|
27/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
11/01/2009|
06/12/2008|
06/12/2008|
06/12/2008|
06/12/2008|
23/11/2008|
23/11/2008|
16/11/2008|
16/11/2008|
04/11/2008|
04/11/2008|
03/11/2008|
03/11/2008|
24/10/2008|
24/10/2008|
24/10/2008|
24/10/2008|
15/09/2008|
15/09/2008|
15/09/2008|
15/09/2008|
15/09/2008|
15/09/2008|
06/09/2008|
06/09/2008|
05/09/2008|
05/09/2008|
05/09/2008|
05/09/2008|
01/09/2008|
01/09/2008|
01/09/2008|
01/09/2008|
22/08/2008|
22/08/2008|
17/08/2008|
17/08/2008|
16/08/2008|
16/08/2008|
28/07/2008|
28/07/2008|
28/07/2008|
28/07/2008|
28/07/2008|
28/07/2008|
19/07/2008|
19/07/2008|
24/05/2008|
24/05/2008|
03/05/2008|
03/05/2008|
29/04/2008|
11/02/2008|
05/01/2008|
09/12/2007|
18/11/2007|
10/11/2007|
10/11/2007|
06/11/2007|
06/11/2007|
06/09/2007|
26/08/2007|
25/08/2007|
11/07/2007|
16/06/2007|
16/06/2007|
10/06/2007|
10/06/2007|
19/05/2007|
19/05/2007|
19/05/2007|
19/05/2007|
24/04/2007|
24/04/2007|
14/04/2007|
14/04/2007|
05/04/2007|
05/04/2007|
05/04/2007|
28/02/2007|
28/02/2007|
05/02/2007|
05/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
29/01/2007|
29/01/2007|
29/01/2007|
29/01/2007|
11/01/2007|
11/01/2007|
11/01/2007|
11/01/2007|
27/12/2006|
27/12/2006|
27/12/2006|
27/12/2006|
27/12/2006|
27/12/2006|
20/12/2006|
20/12/2006|
17/11/2006|
30/09/2006|
28/07/2006|
12/04/2006|
12/04/2006|
12/04/2006|
06/03/2006|
21/02/2006|
17/02/2006|
31/01/2006|
10/01/2006|
28/12/2005|
31/10/2005|
26/09/2005|
29/08/2005|
11/08/2005|
08/08/2005|
24/06/2005|
24/06/2005|
24/06/2005|
03/04/2005|
03/04/2005|
03/04/2005|
03/04/2005|

ver + notas
 
Center for the Study of the Presidency
Freedom House