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01/04/2012 | Mexico - The man to beat

The Economist Staff

As the presidential campaign officially begins, time is running out to catch up with Enrique Peña Nieto

 

TWELVE years ago Mexicans voted to boot the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) out of government, in the first fair presidential election in the country’s history. The PRI had ruled Mexico uninterruptedly for seven decades through co-option and, when necessary, election-fiddling. But when Mexicans go to the polls on July 1st, they look likely to vote the old ruling party back to power. As the presidential campaign officially begins on March 30th, Enrique Peña Nieto (pictured above), the PRI’s candidate, has a poll lead of around 15 percentage points.

He has been helped by the weakness of the most recent occupants of Los Pinos, the presidential residence. Vicente Fox won the presidency for the conservative National Action Party (PAN), but proved a disappointment in office. Felipe Calderón, also from the PAN, whom the constitution bars from running for a second term, is set to leave office with an approval rating lower than those of the PRI presidents of the 1990s. The shock waves of Wall Street’s implosion in 2008 were amplified in Mexico, where the economy shrank by 6.1% the following year. It has bounced back. But Mr Calderón’s attempts to rein in organised crime have seen a doubling of the murder rate. And the many reforms he promised were either much diluted, or stillborn.

After these disappointments, Mr Peña promises to restore “government that delivers”. That was his slogan as governor of Mexico State, the country’s largest, which he handed over last year to his chosen successor, who won 65% of the vote. He now promises growth and jobs for the rest of the country. To achieve this, he would open up Mexico’s declining oil industry to private investment. That would dent the state monopoly, a political totem since the PRI nationalised oil in the 1930s. Like his rivals, on security he has waffled.

Aged 45, Mr Peña has boyish good looks, and has benefited from frequent appearances on Televisa, Mexico’s main television station. “You know I will deliver”, he says in slick TV ads. His rivals claim that behind the pretty face are ties to the dinosaurs of the bad old PRI. Leaked cables from the American embassy refer to “populism” and a lack of transparency in Mexico State. But the election is clearly Mr Peña’s to lose.

Might that happen? An energetic effort by Josefina Vázquez Mota, the PAN’s candidate, has halved the gap in six months. Her slogan, “Different”, unsubtly distances her from Mr Calderón (whom she served as education minister). Ms Vázquez says she would appoint independents and members of other parties to her cabinet in return for support in Congress, where many of Mr Calderón’s initiatives have been blocked on partisan grounds. With no party likely to win an outright majority, Ms Vázquez will portray herself as a conciliator and consensus-builder.

Her momentum stalled during March, when new election rules enforced a pause in the campaign. Miguel Székely, her policy adviser, says that many of the undecided voters are educated 25- to 50-year-olds, who might be swayed by ideas when the campaigning restrictions lift.

But some will be put off by PRI-style scandals that have contaminated the PAN. Many are furious that Fernando Larrazábal, the PAN mayor of Monterrey, has been handed a safe seat as a federal deputy, despite a video of his brother receiving large amounts of cash in a Monterrey casino. (The brother says he was selling cheese.) Manuel Clouthier, the son of a legendary PAN leader, quit the party, saying that the government “corrupts everything it touches.” On March 26th a recording emerged of Ms Vázquez saying she believed her calls were tapped by the government.

With the PAN flailing and the PRI still mistrusted, the left-wing Party of the Democratic Revolution (PRD) ought to sweep the board. Instead its candidate, Andrés Manuel López Obrador, languishes in third. He has a loyal base. But he alienated most Mexicans when he spent months disputing his wafer-thin defeat in 2006, refusing to recognise Mr Calderón as president.

He now offers “reconciliation and friendship”, and has softened his hostility to business, promising no tax rises and to respect existing private oil-service contracts (though no new ones would be signed). “We are reaching sectors where we had not been…I hope that many of them may have modified their attitude,” says Ricardo Monreal, his campaign chief. Pollsters may undercount the PRD’s supporters, many of whom are poor and rural. Even so, Mr López Obrador seems unlikely to win, and his defectors may be slightly more likely to go to the PRI than to the PAN.

How much can change in three months? Mr Calderón seems determined to thwart the PRI. The government has arranged a series of news-grabbing events, starting with a visit by the Pope in March and ending with a G20 summit in the resort of Los Cabos in June. A ceremony in which Mr Peña formally launched his campaign on March 12th was bumped off the front pages by the government’s announcement that it had nearly captured Joaquín “El Chapo” Guzmán, Mexico’s most wanted drug trafficker. Some foresee El Chapo’s capture shortly before July 1st.

Two televised debates offer a chance for upsets. Mr Peña is a charismatic set-piece speaker, but hazy when asked about the fine details of policy. The debates will be amplified by social networks. Gaffes have spread like wildfire online: clips of Mr Peña muddling a pair of authors at a book fair, of Ms Vázquez speaking to an emptying stadium during her swearing-in as a candidate, and Mr López Obrador’s unguarded comment that he is tired of campaigning have all been shared thousands of times. The internet is no longer just for the elite: more than half of young Mexicans in cities are on Facebook.

Mr Calderón came from behind to win in the final weeks of the 2006 campaign. Yet the polling gap between Ms Vázquez and Mr Peña is more than double that which Mr Calderón faced in March 2006. Turning the campaign around is not impossible. But unless there is a radical change, Mexico is on course to bring back the old regime.

The Economist (Reino Unido)

 


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09/05/2010|
01/04/2010|
01/04/2010|
31/03/2010|
31/03/2010|
31/03/2010|
28/03/2010|
28/03/2010|
28/03/2010|
20/03/2010|
12/03/2010|
12/03/2010|
12/03/2010|
08/03/2010|
07/03/2010|
06/03/2010|
05/03/2010|
03/03/2010|
03/03/2010|
28/02/2010|
21/02/2010|
19/02/2010|
14/02/2010|
11/02/2010|
11/02/2010|
10/02/2010|
08/02/2010|
08/02/2010|
08/02/2010|
28/01/2010|
25/01/2010|
20/01/2010|
20/01/2010|
16/01/2010|
16/01/2010|
15/01/2010|
15/01/2010|
11/01/2010|
11/01/2010|
10/01/2010|
07/01/2010|
03/01/2010|
03/01/2010|
03/01/2010|
17/12/2009|
15/12/2009|
15/12/2009|
13/12/2009|
13/12/2009|
28/11/2009|
28/11/2009|
28/11/2009|
28/11/2009|
27/11/2009|
27/11/2009|
27/11/2009|
27/11/2009|
27/11/2009|
27/11/2009|
21/11/2009|
21/11/2009|
18/11/2009|
18/11/2009|
16/11/2009|
16/11/2009|
30/10/2009|
30/10/2009|
11/10/2009|
10/10/2009|
10/10/2009|
07/10/2009|
07/10/2009|
04/10/2009|
30/09/2009|
30/09/2009|
27/09/2009|
27/09/2009|
27/09/2009|
22/09/2009|
20/09/2009|
18/09/2009|
18/09/2009|
18/09/2009|
16/09/2009|
16/09/2009|
16/09/2009|
08/09/2009|
07/09/2009|
06/09/2009|
06/09/2009|
05/09/2009|
05/09/2009|
26/08/2009|
21/08/2009|
19/08/2009|
19/08/2009|
15/08/2009|
15/08/2009|
15/08/2009|
11/08/2009|
11/08/2009|
11/08/2009|
11/08/2009|
19/07/2009|
19/07/2009|
18/07/2009|
18/07/2009|
27/03/2009|
22/03/2009|
22/03/2009|
27/01/2009|
27/01/2009|
27/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
11/01/2009|
06/12/2008|
06/12/2008|
06/12/2008|
06/12/2008|
23/11/2008|
23/11/2008|
16/11/2008|
16/11/2008|
04/11/2008|
04/11/2008|
03/11/2008|
03/11/2008|
24/10/2008|
24/10/2008|
24/10/2008|
24/10/2008|
15/09/2008|
15/09/2008|
15/09/2008|
15/09/2008|
15/09/2008|
15/09/2008|
06/09/2008|
06/09/2008|
05/09/2008|
05/09/2008|
05/09/2008|
05/09/2008|
01/09/2008|
01/09/2008|
01/09/2008|
01/09/2008|
22/08/2008|
22/08/2008|
17/08/2008|
17/08/2008|
16/08/2008|
16/08/2008|
28/07/2008|
28/07/2008|
28/07/2008|
28/07/2008|
28/07/2008|
28/07/2008|
19/07/2008|
19/07/2008|
24/05/2008|
24/05/2008|
03/05/2008|
03/05/2008|
29/04/2008|
11/02/2008|
05/01/2008|
09/12/2007|
18/11/2007|
10/11/2007|
10/11/2007|
06/11/2007|
06/11/2007|
06/09/2007|
26/08/2007|
25/08/2007|
11/07/2007|
16/06/2007|
16/06/2007|
10/06/2007|
10/06/2007|
19/05/2007|
19/05/2007|
19/05/2007|
19/05/2007|
24/04/2007|
24/04/2007|
14/04/2007|
14/04/2007|
05/04/2007|
05/04/2007|
05/04/2007|
28/02/2007|
28/02/2007|
05/02/2007|
05/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
29/01/2007|
29/01/2007|
29/01/2007|
29/01/2007|
11/01/2007|
11/01/2007|
11/01/2007|
11/01/2007|
27/12/2006|
27/12/2006|
27/12/2006|
27/12/2006|
27/12/2006|
27/12/2006|
20/12/2006|
20/12/2006|
17/11/2006|
30/09/2006|
28/07/2006|
12/04/2006|
12/04/2006|
12/04/2006|
06/03/2006|
21/02/2006|
17/02/2006|
31/01/2006|
10/01/2006|
28/12/2005|
31/10/2005|
26/09/2005|
29/08/2005|
11/08/2005|
08/08/2005|
24/06/2005|
24/06/2005|
24/06/2005|
03/04/2005|
03/04/2005|
03/04/2005|
03/04/2005|

ver + notas
 
Center for the Study of the Presidency
Freedom House