Inteligencia y Seguridad Frente Externo En Profundidad Economia y Finanzas Transparencia
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Transparencia  
 
11/02/2013 | The IMF and Argentina - Motion of censure

The Economist Staff

The fund blows the whistle

 

THE IMF has taken years to pluck up the courage to censure Argentina’s blatantly inaccurate inflation statistics, but it did so at last on February 1st. The official reprimand gives the government of President Cristina Fernández until September 29th to take “remedial measures” to comply with the fund’s rules on the reporting of statistics. It it fails to do so, Argentina risks escalating punishments, from losing its ability to borrow from the IMF to—eventually—expulsion.

This is the first time the fund has reprimanded a country in this way since its rules on members’ statistics were tightened in 2004. It has only ever expelled one country—Czechoslovakia in 1954, ostensibly for failing to provide adequate statistics, though the cold war probably had more to do with it.

As so often, Argentina seems incapable of playing by the same rules as everyone else. Since the government seized control of the statistics institute in 2007 the discrepancy between the official inflation number and that reported by independent economists has been up to 15 percentage points (see chart). Doctoring the number saved the government some $2.5 billion in payments on index-linked debt, according to an estimate by Miguel Kiguel, an economist in Buenos Aires.

Some Argentine economists also think that the government has bumped up figures for GDP growth by around two percentage points a year. But the subterfuge is wearing thin. Labour unions are angry that their wages are not being increased in line with true inflation. With wage claims pending and a congressional election due in October, this week the government announced that it has told supermarkets to freeze their prices for two months.

Ms Fernández seems to have more stomach for the statistical fight than the IMF. She and her late husband and predecessor, Néstor Kirchner, blamed the fund for Argentina’s economic collapse in 2001, though it was the country’s own policies that were mainly responsible. They vowed never to submit to the IMF again. Responding to the censure, the government criticised the fund for applying “double standards” and favouring banks. It also linked the censure to Argentina’s battle with vulture funds, which bought its defaulted bonds and are suing for billions of dollars in a New York court.

Behind the bluster, the government may be preparing a retreat. The New York case led to the seizure of an Argentine navy sailing ship last year. In a written filing to the court, the government offered to reopen its 2010 bond swap to the holdouts—a reversal of its previous position, written into law, that it would never do so.

The inflation imbroglio may be harder to fix. The government is working on a new national consumer-price index, to start in the fourth quarter of this year—in effect, after the election. But that may not be enough to satisfy the IMF. It is likely to want Argentina to let its staff verify that the new methodology is in line with international standards. Ms Fernández is unlikely to accept that. The battle between Argentine nationalism and statistical rationality may be far from over.

The Economist (Reino Unido)

 


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18/09/2009|
18/09/2009|
16/09/2009|
16/09/2009|
16/09/2009|
08/09/2009|
07/09/2009|
06/09/2009|
06/09/2009|
05/09/2009|
05/09/2009|
26/08/2009|
21/08/2009|
19/08/2009|
19/08/2009|
15/08/2009|
15/08/2009|
15/08/2009|
11/08/2009|
11/08/2009|
11/08/2009|
11/08/2009|
19/07/2009|
19/07/2009|
18/07/2009|
18/07/2009|
27/03/2009|
22/03/2009|
22/03/2009|
27/01/2009|
27/01/2009|
27/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
11/01/2009|
06/12/2008|
06/12/2008|
06/12/2008|
06/12/2008|
23/11/2008|
23/11/2008|
16/11/2008|
16/11/2008|
04/11/2008|
04/11/2008|
03/11/2008|
03/11/2008|
24/10/2008|
24/10/2008|
24/10/2008|
24/10/2008|
15/09/2008|
15/09/2008|
15/09/2008|
15/09/2008|
15/09/2008|
15/09/2008|
06/09/2008|
06/09/2008|
05/09/2008|
05/09/2008|
05/09/2008|
05/09/2008|
01/09/2008|
01/09/2008|
01/09/2008|
01/09/2008|
22/08/2008|
22/08/2008|
17/08/2008|
17/08/2008|
16/08/2008|
16/08/2008|
28/07/2008|
28/07/2008|
28/07/2008|
28/07/2008|
28/07/2008|
28/07/2008|
19/07/2008|
19/07/2008|
24/05/2008|
24/05/2008|
03/05/2008|
03/05/2008|
29/04/2008|
11/02/2008|
05/01/2008|
09/12/2007|
18/11/2007|
10/11/2007|
10/11/2007|
06/11/2007|
06/11/2007|
06/09/2007|
26/08/2007|
25/08/2007|
11/07/2007|
16/06/2007|
16/06/2007|
10/06/2007|
10/06/2007|
19/05/2007|
19/05/2007|
19/05/2007|
19/05/2007|
24/04/2007|
24/04/2007|
14/04/2007|
14/04/2007|
05/04/2007|
05/04/2007|
05/04/2007|
28/02/2007|
28/02/2007|
05/02/2007|
05/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
29/01/2007|
29/01/2007|
29/01/2007|
29/01/2007|
11/01/2007|
11/01/2007|
11/01/2007|
11/01/2007|
27/12/2006|
27/12/2006|
27/12/2006|
27/12/2006|
27/12/2006|
27/12/2006|
20/12/2006|
20/12/2006|
17/11/2006|
30/09/2006|
28/07/2006|
12/04/2006|
12/04/2006|
12/04/2006|
06/03/2006|
21/02/2006|
17/02/2006|
31/01/2006|
10/01/2006|
28/12/2005|
31/10/2005|
26/09/2005|
29/08/2005|
11/08/2005|
08/08/2005|
24/06/2005|
24/06/2005|
24/06/2005|
03/04/2005|
03/04/2005|
03/04/2005|
03/04/2005|

ver + notas
 
Center for the Study of the Presidency
Freedom House