Inteligencia y Seguridad Frente Externo En Profundidad Economia y Finanzas Transparencia
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En Profundidad  
 
28/12/2005 | Kirchner and Lula: different ways to give the Fund the kiss off

The Economist Staff

Whatever the economics involved, wriggling free from the tutelage of the IMF is always good politics, in Latin America in particular. That is why Brazil's finance ministry announced on December 13th that it would repay early its entire debt of $15.5 billion falling due to the IMF over the next two years.

 

The immediate effect was to rush Néstor Kirchner, Argentina's president, into an identical declaration just two days later. He said his government would repay $9.8 billion to the Fund, before the end of this month. In both cases, the motivations were similar. More telling was the difference in market reaction and policy implications.

Both governments claimed they would make financial gains from the move—a saving of over $900m in interest payments for Brazil and of $842m for Argentina. In both cases, the more powerful motive was political. Brazil's president, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, is burdened with a corruption scandal and a below-par economy as he prepares for a tough fight to win a second term in an election next October. Paying off the IMF will please his left-wing supporters without ruffling financial markets. Mr Kirchner runs the risk that by the time he seeks a second term at an election in April 2007, Argentina's economic recovery may have run out of steam. Paying off the Fund will “generate freedom for national decisions”, he said. Even La Nación, a habitually Kirchner-sceptic newspaper, hailed this as an “historic” move.

There the similarities end. Brazil's agreement with the IMF has helped steer it through financial turmoil and an inflationary spike. Its repayment exploits the robust balance of its international payments: reserves stand at some $67 billion. “Foreign investors will understand that Brazil has strong policies,” said Joaquim Levy, a senior finance official. They did: the risk premium on Brazil's dollar bonds fell to its lowest level ever last week.

Ironically, this gesture of self-confidence comes at a time of fierce debate over the policies that made it possible. The finance minister, Antonio Palocci, is defending high interest rates and a tight budget policy against increasingly shrill attacks from business, the ruling party and his fellow ministers. The odds are that government spending will rise in 2006. But the debate is over whether or not the government should continue to exceed its fiscal targets. In Brazil there is “a growing convergence around a responsible fiscal policy”, according to Lisa Schineller of Standard & Poor's, a rating agency.

Argentina's recent experience with the IMF has been far less happy. Only last month Mr Kirchner dedicated the bulk of his speech as the host of the Summit of the Americas to blaming the Fund for Argentina's woes. But the benefits to Argentina from its declaration of financial independence are hardly clear-cut. The government was paying an interest rate of 4.2% on its loans from the Fund. It will repay the central bank partly by issuing new debt, which is likely to pay a coupon rate of around 9%.

In practice, Mr Kirchner already had much freedom of manoeuvre. In August 2004, Argentina suspended its agreement with the IMF; since then, it has repaid its debts to the Fund as they fell due. Roberto Lavagna, the economy minister until he was sacked last month, wanted a new agreement with the IMF. But Mr Kirchner had made it clear that he would brook no unwelcome conditions from the Fund. Since the IMF was reluctant to contemplate a default by such a prominent debtor, the president might have got his way.

Thanks to the strength of its recovery, Argentina can just about afford to repay the Fund. Since 2002, exports have increased by around 50% and the central bank's reserves almost tripled, to $27 billion. Even so, markets reacted unfavourably, with both the peso and bond prices falling. That reaction probably had less to do with concerns about lower currency reserves than with the uncertainties Mr Kirchner has now introduced into Argentine economic policy by casting off Mr Lavagna and the IMF in short order.

In the new Argentina, the president's word is law: he chose to enact the prepayment by presidential decree, riding roughshod over the central bank's legal independence. In place of the IMF, one of Argentina's largest creditors is now Hugo Chávez, Venezuela's socialist president.

Mr Kirchner insisted that he will stick to fiscal solvency, “prudent” monetary policy and “a predictable economic environment”. His opponents argue that he is not. His economic team shows no sign of tightening monetary policy even though double-digit inflation has provoked a wave of strikes. Instead, the government has bullied food producers and supermarkets into holding down prices, under threat of higher taxes.

The IMF would have pushed for increases in the tariffs of privatised utilities, many of which have been frozen since 2002. Mr Kirchner's gamble seems to be that he can round up enough investment to overcome critical bottlenecks in energy and infrastructure, allowing growth to continue while easing inflationary pressures. If he fails, Argentina risks a return to the stagflation of its past.

Doing without the Fund is indeed an economic emancipation. But it means that governments must stand or fall purely on their own reputation for financial probity. South America's two largest economies have now put that to the test, in a controlled experiment.

Hacer - Washington DC (Estados Unidos)

 


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28/02/2010|
21/02/2010|
19/02/2010|
14/02/2010|
11/02/2010|
11/02/2010|
10/02/2010|
08/02/2010|
08/02/2010|
08/02/2010|
28/01/2010|
25/01/2010|
20/01/2010|
20/01/2010|
16/01/2010|
16/01/2010|
15/01/2010|
15/01/2010|
11/01/2010|
11/01/2010|
10/01/2010|
07/01/2010|
03/01/2010|
03/01/2010|
03/01/2010|
17/12/2009|
15/12/2009|
15/12/2009|
13/12/2009|
13/12/2009|
28/11/2009|
28/11/2009|
28/11/2009|
28/11/2009|
27/11/2009|
27/11/2009|
27/11/2009|
27/11/2009|
27/11/2009|
27/11/2009|
21/11/2009|
21/11/2009|
18/11/2009|
18/11/2009|
16/11/2009|
16/11/2009|
30/10/2009|
30/10/2009|
11/10/2009|
10/10/2009|
10/10/2009|
07/10/2009|
07/10/2009|
04/10/2009|
30/09/2009|
30/09/2009|
27/09/2009|
27/09/2009|
27/09/2009|
22/09/2009|
20/09/2009|
18/09/2009|
18/09/2009|
18/09/2009|
16/09/2009|
16/09/2009|
16/09/2009|
08/09/2009|
07/09/2009|
06/09/2009|
06/09/2009|
05/09/2009|
05/09/2009|
26/08/2009|
21/08/2009|
19/08/2009|
19/08/2009|
15/08/2009|
15/08/2009|
15/08/2009|
11/08/2009|
11/08/2009|
11/08/2009|
11/08/2009|
19/07/2009|
19/07/2009|
18/07/2009|
18/07/2009|
27/03/2009|
22/03/2009|
22/03/2009|
27/01/2009|
27/01/2009|
27/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
11/01/2009|
06/12/2008|
06/12/2008|
06/12/2008|
06/12/2008|
23/11/2008|
23/11/2008|
16/11/2008|
16/11/2008|
04/11/2008|
04/11/2008|
03/11/2008|
03/11/2008|
24/10/2008|
24/10/2008|
24/10/2008|
24/10/2008|
15/09/2008|
15/09/2008|
15/09/2008|
15/09/2008|
15/09/2008|
15/09/2008|
06/09/2008|
06/09/2008|
05/09/2008|
05/09/2008|
05/09/2008|
05/09/2008|
01/09/2008|
01/09/2008|
01/09/2008|
01/09/2008|
22/08/2008|
22/08/2008|
17/08/2008|
17/08/2008|
16/08/2008|
16/08/2008|
28/07/2008|
28/07/2008|
28/07/2008|
28/07/2008|
28/07/2008|
28/07/2008|
19/07/2008|
19/07/2008|
24/05/2008|
24/05/2008|
03/05/2008|
03/05/2008|
29/04/2008|
11/02/2008|
05/01/2008|
09/12/2007|
18/11/2007|
10/11/2007|
10/11/2007|
06/11/2007|
06/11/2007|
06/09/2007|
26/08/2007|
25/08/2007|
11/07/2007|
16/06/2007|
16/06/2007|
10/06/2007|
10/06/2007|
19/05/2007|
19/05/2007|
19/05/2007|
19/05/2007|
24/04/2007|
24/04/2007|
14/04/2007|
14/04/2007|
05/04/2007|
05/04/2007|
05/04/2007|
28/02/2007|
28/02/2007|
05/02/2007|
05/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
29/01/2007|
29/01/2007|
29/01/2007|
29/01/2007|
11/01/2007|
11/01/2007|
11/01/2007|
11/01/2007|
27/12/2006|
27/12/2006|
27/12/2006|
27/12/2006|
27/12/2006|
27/12/2006|
20/12/2006|
20/12/2006|
17/11/2006|
30/09/2006|
28/07/2006|
12/04/2006|
12/04/2006|
12/04/2006|
06/03/2006|
21/02/2006|
17/02/2006|
31/01/2006|
10/01/2006|
31/10/2005|
26/09/2005|
29/08/2005|
11/08/2005|
08/08/2005|
24/06/2005|
24/06/2005|
24/06/2005|
03/04/2005|
03/04/2005|
03/04/2005|
03/04/2005|

ver + notas
 
Center for the Study of the Presidency
Freedom House