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24/11/2012 | Missiles v rockets - Dome warfare

The Economist Staff

The Israelis can fend off most of the missiles but some will still get through.

 

ISRAEL’s generals will feel satisfied with the results of Operation Pillar of Defence, especially compared with the botched Lebanon war of 2006 or the highly destructive Operation Cast Lead, when Israeli forces invaded the Gaza Strip for three weeks at the end of 2008 and the beginning of 2009. On that occasion, according to B’Tselem, an Israeli human-rights monitor, they killed 1,390 Palestinians, two-thirds of them civilians. This time they achieved more limited objectives a lot more quickly and efficiently, though they left at least 140 Palestinians dead, again many of them civilians, for the loss of three Israeli civilians plus a soldier and a defence contractor.

Israel’s stated plan was to eliminate most of the longer-range missiles Hamas has acquired in recent years and to restore deterrence after a growing spate of rocket attacks on Israeli towns. In particular, Israel had become concerned that after a period when most of the rockets fired against it had come from smaller groups in Gaza, such as Palestinian Islamic Jihad, Hamas too was getting in on the act, apparently gambling that its alliance with the Muslim Brotherhood now ruling Egypt would give it cover.

The Israeli operation began on November 14th with a decapitation strike, when a Hermes 450 drone was used to kill Ahmed Jabari, the Hamas military chief of staff, a mastermind of the project to build up a formidable missile arsenal. In the hours that followed, about 90% of the Iranian-supplied Fajr-5 missiles (numbering several hundred) and locally produced M-75 missiles, all with ranges of more than 72km (45 miles), were destroyed, say the Israelis, together with their launchers in underground concrete silos. Since then, many shorter-range Grad rockets and home-made Qassam rockets have also been hit, along with the facilities that assembled missiles and primitive drones smuggled in parts through the network of tunnels linking Gaza with Egypt.

Good Israeli intelligence and the greater precision of the air bombardment have kept casualties in the densely populated territory lower than before. However, in the hours before the ceasefire, Israeli jets appeared to be running out of military targets and were hitting more of Gaza’s civil infrastructure. Critics of Israel accuse it of acting disproportionately, since it has lost just five people, three killed when a Hamas missile hit a home in Kiryat Malachi about 32km from the border. But the Palestinian death toll has not stirred the same degree of international condemnation as in Cast Lead. (Until the Kiryat Malachi incident, no Israeli had been killed this year by a rocket or missile fired from Gaza.)

That is one reason why Israel’s prime minister, Binyamin Netanyahu, more cautious than is often presumed, held back from ordering a ground attack and occupation, despite the call-up of 75,000 reservists and the massing of tanks, artillery and infantry on the border with Gaza. Another reason is that Israelis at large would be much more divided over a ground invasion, with the risk of their troops getting killed or kidnapped, than they have been over a more clinical air campaign.

Despite its public defiance, Hamas has been hard hit. As Anshel Pfeffer, a commentator for Haaretz, a liberal Israeli newspaper, put it: “For them, it’s a case of back to the drawing board.” Hamas’s ability to harm Israel with an arsenal of increasingly effective missiles is now in doubt. Israel has shown it can identify well-concealed launchers and destroy them, while its new Iron Dome missile-defence system, developed in Israel with American financial assistance, has proved highly effective.

An Iron Dome battery consists of a battle management-control unit, detection-and-tracking radar and three launchers, each containing 20 interceptors. One battery is said to be able to cover a city-sized area. Iron Dome tracks incoming missiles, determines whether they are on course to hit a populated area and, if they are, launches interceptors to destroy them in flight. The Israelis claim to have knocked out more than 85% of the missiles headed for their towns and villages. On one occasion when three missiles did get through, it was because they were launched in a salvo of 16. With another ten Iron Dome batteries soon to come into service, Hamas will have to use even vaster numbers of missiles to stand a strong chance of beating the system, which is constantly being refined and improved. General Mike Herzog, a former chief of staff to Israel’s defence minister, Ehud Barak, calls Iron Dome “an unprecedented technical achievement”.

Though the interceptors cost $45,000 each (some 50 times the price of most of the missiles they destroy), Hamas will struggle to restock with rockets and, after its backing for the uprising in Syria, will get less help from Iran. As part of any permanent ceasefire, Israel will insist that Egypt clamps down on the smuggling of missile parts through Sinai and into Gaza. If it fails to do so, its risks losing the $1.3 billion a year in military aid it gets from America.

Hizbullah, the Shia party-cum-militia that runs most of southern Lebanon, may also be worried by Iron Dome’s success. Its missiles are more numerous and more sophisticated, but it too may face resupply problems, since Iran, its main sponsor, could find its conduit via Syria closed.

Hamas’s missile strategy has been set back. But unless its stock is completely wiped out, it will still be able to strike the occasional telling psychological blow against its enemy. Even though missiles fired at Tel Aviv fell into the sea and another aimed at Jerusalem fell short of Israel’s parliament, its intended target, the fact that they flew so far into the heartland has shaken many Israelis.

The Economist (Reino Unido)

 


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10/02/2010|
08/02/2010|
08/02/2010|
08/02/2010|
28/01/2010|
25/01/2010|
20/01/2010|
20/01/2010|
16/01/2010|
16/01/2010|
15/01/2010|
15/01/2010|
11/01/2010|
11/01/2010|
10/01/2010|
07/01/2010|
03/01/2010|
03/01/2010|
03/01/2010|
17/12/2009|
15/12/2009|
15/12/2009|
13/12/2009|
13/12/2009|
28/11/2009|
28/11/2009|
28/11/2009|
28/11/2009|
27/11/2009|
27/11/2009|
27/11/2009|
27/11/2009|
27/11/2009|
27/11/2009|
21/11/2009|
21/11/2009|
18/11/2009|
18/11/2009|
16/11/2009|
16/11/2009|
30/10/2009|
30/10/2009|
11/10/2009|
10/10/2009|
10/10/2009|
07/10/2009|
07/10/2009|
04/10/2009|
30/09/2009|
30/09/2009|
27/09/2009|
27/09/2009|
27/09/2009|
22/09/2009|
20/09/2009|
18/09/2009|
18/09/2009|
18/09/2009|
16/09/2009|
16/09/2009|
16/09/2009|
08/09/2009|
07/09/2009|
06/09/2009|
06/09/2009|
05/09/2009|
05/09/2009|
26/08/2009|
21/08/2009|
19/08/2009|
19/08/2009|
15/08/2009|
15/08/2009|
15/08/2009|
11/08/2009|
11/08/2009|
11/08/2009|
11/08/2009|
19/07/2009|
19/07/2009|
18/07/2009|
18/07/2009|
27/03/2009|
22/03/2009|
22/03/2009|
27/01/2009|
27/01/2009|
27/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
11/01/2009|
06/12/2008|
06/12/2008|
06/12/2008|
06/12/2008|
23/11/2008|
23/11/2008|
16/11/2008|
16/11/2008|
04/11/2008|
04/11/2008|
03/11/2008|
03/11/2008|
24/10/2008|
24/10/2008|
24/10/2008|
24/10/2008|
15/09/2008|
15/09/2008|
15/09/2008|
15/09/2008|
15/09/2008|
15/09/2008|
06/09/2008|
06/09/2008|
05/09/2008|
05/09/2008|
05/09/2008|
05/09/2008|
01/09/2008|
01/09/2008|
01/09/2008|
01/09/2008|
22/08/2008|
22/08/2008|
17/08/2008|
17/08/2008|
16/08/2008|
16/08/2008|
28/07/2008|
28/07/2008|
28/07/2008|
28/07/2008|
28/07/2008|
28/07/2008|
19/07/2008|
19/07/2008|
24/05/2008|
24/05/2008|
03/05/2008|
03/05/2008|
29/04/2008|
11/02/2008|
05/01/2008|
09/12/2007|
18/11/2007|
10/11/2007|
10/11/2007|
06/11/2007|
06/11/2007|
06/09/2007|
26/08/2007|
25/08/2007|
11/07/2007|
16/06/2007|
16/06/2007|
10/06/2007|
10/06/2007|
19/05/2007|
19/05/2007|
19/05/2007|
19/05/2007|
24/04/2007|
24/04/2007|
14/04/2007|
14/04/2007|
05/04/2007|
05/04/2007|
05/04/2007|
28/02/2007|
28/02/2007|
05/02/2007|
05/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
29/01/2007|
29/01/2007|
29/01/2007|
29/01/2007|
11/01/2007|
11/01/2007|
11/01/2007|
11/01/2007|
27/12/2006|
27/12/2006|
27/12/2006|
27/12/2006|
27/12/2006|
27/12/2006|
20/12/2006|
20/12/2006|
17/11/2006|
30/09/2006|
28/07/2006|
12/04/2006|
12/04/2006|
12/04/2006|
06/03/2006|
21/02/2006|
17/02/2006|
31/01/2006|
10/01/2006|
28/12/2005|
31/10/2005|
26/09/2005|
29/08/2005|
11/08/2005|
08/08/2005|
24/06/2005|
24/06/2005|
24/06/2005|
03/04/2005|
03/04/2005|
03/04/2005|
03/04/2005|

ver + notas
 
Center for the Study of the Presidency
Freedom House