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04/03/2011 | Bolivia - The calle gets restive

The Economist Staff

Inflation, shortages and scandals have caught up with Latin America’s hitherto most popular leftist leader .

 

UNTIL last Christmas, Bolivia’s Evo Morales seemed to be the strongest and most successful of Latin America’s far-left presidents. His status as his country’s first elected leader of indigenous descent, combined with a policy of funnelling the proceeds of higher taxes on the oil and gas industry to the poor majority in highland Bolivia, brought him enduring popularity. Having outwitted the opposition, centred in the eastern lowlands, he easily won a second term in 2009 with 64% of the vote.

Yet suddenly little is going right for Mr Morales. An abrupt decision to remove subsidies on fuels, raising their prices by over 70%, was greeted with mass protests of the kind Mr Morales himself once organised against previous governments. He quickly backed down, but that did not quash discontent. Last month Mr Morales pulled out of an event in Oruro, a highland city previously loyal to him, when he was greeted by dynamite-wielding protesters angry at rises in bus fares and food prices. After the government tried to block the fare rises, bus owners withdrew their vehicles from service on February 25th.

Then came embarrassment when René Sanabria, a retired police general who is the government’s top drug adviser, was arrested in Panama on February 24th and extradited to the United States on charges of cocaine trafficking. Some officials said that the arrest was revenge by America’s Drug Enforcement Administration for its expulsion from Bolivia in 2008. However, the interior ministry had three other police officers arrested. Both coca and cocaine production have risen in Bolivia in recent years, according to the United Nations.

But the main headache for Mr Morales is the economy. The government’s abortive attempt to remove the fuel subsidy (which cost $380m last year) was a sign of its more straitened finances. Its spending continues to grow, but the short-term boost to its coffers from the tax increase on oil and gas seems to have run out. The state oil company lacks the means, and multinationals the will, to invest much in expanding natural-gas output. Luis Arce, the finance minister, says that the government last year posted a fiscal surplus for the fifth year running, but others doubt that. According to Jaime Pérez of Fundación Jubileo, a think-tank, the government went into the red in 2009. The government itself forecasts a fiscal deficit of around $870m (4.2% of GDP) this year, high by regional standards.

Another sign of trouble is inflation, which has surged to 8.4% over the 12 months to January. Food prices have shot up, and there is a shortage of sugar and other staples. Higher world prices are partly to blame. So are drought and wildfires last year which hurt crops. Flooding this year, which killed 39 people, has caused further disruption to food supplies.

But government policies have made matters worse. As prices rose in 2008 the government intervened to curb farm exports and imposed price controls. The result was that farmers planted less. Huge queues have formed at state food-distribution centres. Some of those centres closed when they ran out of supplies or their staff feared violence. Journalists found food stockpiled at the homes of several government officials and leaders of Mr Morales’s Movement to Socialism (MAS) party.

Although the fuel-price rise was withdrawn, it prompted other price rises across the economy, many of which have not been reversed. Bus owner-drivers in particular are feeling the pinch. Fares have been frozen for more than a decade even as the cost of maintaining vehicles and paying police bribes has spiralled. “When I started ten years ago lunch cost two bolivianos, now it costs me eight,” says a disgruntled driver.

All this has taken a toll on Mr Morales’s popularity. A poll taken in Bolivia’s main cities in February by Ipsos-Apoyo showed his approval rating at just 32% (rural areas tend to be more loyal). The government faces little threat from the formal opposition, partly because some of its leaders have chosen exile in the face of legal harassment. Rather, the main source of the president’s new difficulties lies in his own movement. The MAS is a coalition of far-left parties, indigenous activists and NGOs. Social movements, such as unions and peasant groups, form its political base.

Until this year such groups believed Mr Morales was on their side, and forgave his verbal snafus and missteps. Now many of them will no longer give him the benefit of the doubt. The government’s new slogan is “Governing [is] obeying the people.” Having led the Bolivian street for the past decade, Mr Morales now finds himself ruling at its mercy.

The Economist (Reino Unido)

 


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18/11/2009|
18/11/2009|
16/11/2009|
16/11/2009|
30/10/2009|
30/10/2009|
11/10/2009|
10/10/2009|
10/10/2009|
07/10/2009|
07/10/2009|
04/10/2009|
30/09/2009|
30/09/2009|
27/09/2009|
27/09/2009|
27/09/2009|
22/09/2009|
20/09/2009|
18/09/2009|
18/09/2009|
18/09/2009|
16/09/2009|
16/09/2009|
16/09/2009|
08/09/2009|
07/09/2009|
06/09/2009|
06/09/2009|
05/09/2009|
05/09/2009|
26/08/2009|
21/08/2009|
19/08/2009|
19/08/2009|
15/08/2009|
15/08/2009|
15/08/2009|
11/08/2009|
11/08/2009|
11/08/2009|
11/08/2009|
19/07/2009|
19/07/2009|
18/07/2009|
18/07/2009|
27/03/2009|
22/03/2009|
22/03/2009|
27/01/2009|
27/01/2009|
27/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
11/01/2009|
06/12/2008|
06/12/2008|
06/12/2008|
06/12/2008|
23/11/2008|
23/11/2008|
16/11/2008|
16/11/2008|
04/11/2008|
04/11/2008|
03/11/2008|
03/11/2008|
24/10/2008|
24/10/2008|
24/10/2008|
24/10/2008|
15/09/2008|
15/09/2008|
15/09/2008|
15/09/2008|
15/09/2008|
15/09/2008|
06/09/2008|
06/09/2008|
05/09/2008|
05/09/2008|
05/09/2008|
05/09/2008|
01/09/2008|
01/09/2008|
01/09/2008|
01/09/2008|
22/08/2008|
22/08/2008|
17/08/2008|
17/08/2008|
16/08/2008|
16/08/2008|
28/07/2008|
28/07/2008|
28/07/2008|
28/07/2008|
28/07/2008|
28/07/2008|
19/07/2008|
19/07/2008|
24/05/2008|
24/05/2008|
03/05/2008|
03/05/2008|
29/04/2008|
11/02/2008|
05/01/2008|
09/12/2007|
18/11/2007|
10/11/2007|
10/11/2007|
06/11/2007|
06/11/2007|
06/09/2007|
26/08/2007|
25/08/2007|
11/07/2007|
16/06/2007|
16/06/2007|
10/06/2007|
10/06/2007|
19/05/2007|
19/05/2007|
19/05/2007|
19/05/2007|
24/04/2007|
24/04/2007|
14/04/2007|
14/04/2007|
05/04/2007|
05/04/2007|
05/04/2007|
28/02/2007|
28/02/2007|
05/02/2007|
05/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
29/01/2007|
29/01/2007|
29/01/2007|
29/01/2007|
11/01/2007|
11/01/2007|
11/01/2007|
11/01/2007|
27/12/2006|
27/12/2006|
27/12/2006|
27/12/2006|
27/12/2006|
27/12/2006|
20/12/2006|
20/12/2006|
17/11/2006|
30/09/2006|
28/07/2006|
12/04/2006|
12/04/2006|
12/04/2006|
06/03/2006|
21/02/2006|
17/02/2006|
31/01/2006|
10/01/2006|
28/12/2005|
31/10/2005|
26/09/2005|
29/08/2005|
11/08/2005|
08/08/2005|
24/06/2005|
24/06/2005|
24/06/2005|
03/04/2005|
03/04/2005|
03/04/2005|
03/04/2005|

ver + notas
 
Center for the Study of the Presidency
Freedom House