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04/02/2007 | US politics - Remember Pat Buchanan

The Economist Staff

Why so many candidates, with so little reason to believe they could win, are running for president in 2008.

 

BEWARE of flying hats. The race to be America's president has never before started so early and with so many candidates. Almost without pausing for breath after the congressional elections late last year, would-be contenders from both parties have been rushing to fling their headgear into the ring. Media attention, for obvious reasons, centres on the front-runners: Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama and John Edwards for the Democrats; John McCain, Rudy Giuliani and one or two others for the Republicans. But a host of also-rans, some of whom would be worthy of serious attention in any other year, are piling in too.

Consider Tom Vilsack, a successful, pious, two-term former governor of a heartland state, Iowa, who was the first Democrat to declare he is running. He has a gentle and authoritative manner, though fewer than 1% of Democrats—according to a recent poll in Time magazine—would consider voting for him. Or consider Sam Brownback. A dream candidate for many conservatives, the Republican senator from Kansas is a Catholic convert who, nonetheless, is drawing a mere 3% of Republican voters.

The list of the hopeful or the deluded is lengthening fast. Mike Huckabee, the Republican governor of Arkansas, has announced a likely run. He has been called one of America’s best governors, yet he is at the 1% level, with Tom Tancredo, Jim Gilmore and others whom only political junkies could name. Bill Richardson, the likeable governor of New Mexico who is popular with Latino voters and who served under Bill Clinton, is also stuck in single figures in the polls. Even Joe Biden, the chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, has been telling everyone who will listen that he intends to run for president. To what end? He is rated by a measily 2% or so of Democratic voters.

The burning question is why the no-hopers even try. It is customary to note that a southern governor—Mr Clinton—emerged from obscurity to do all right for himself in 1992. But even in the past 15 years politics has shifted further towards those with the money to spend. Campaigns are increasingly expensive. Al Gore spent $48m to become the 2000 Democratic nominee. John Kerry spent $235m four years later. Such records are likely to fall next year. And campaign dollars flow heavily towards those who establish themselves as front-runners.

Yet this time around, the race is relatively open. On the Republican side, Dick Cheney, the vice-president, is not competing, so there is no incumbent to lead the pack. For the Democrats Mrs Clinton is the strong front-runner with a reportedly huge war-chest, but enough doubts persist about her voter-appeal to encourage other candidates to step in. With so long to go even before the primaries, there is every chance for leading candidates to produce a gaffe (a Howard Dean scream, anyone?) or for some dark secret to be exposed, thereby leaving opportunities for the smaller-fry.

Then there is the possibility of a lesser prize. Even among those contenders who know that the presidency will never be theirs, there may be juicy rewards to pick up on the way. A run for president attracts media attention and an opportunity to shape debate during the campaign (watch Mr Brownback promote his conservative views in the Republican camp). Think of Pat Buchanan in 1992, who did well in the primaries promoting subjects that were a thorn in the Republicans’ side, and then he went on to speak at the Republican convention and to launch his “culture war” against mainstream America.

Perhaps most tempting for a candidate whose run is impressive is the chance to bow out of the race, eventually, in return for the promise of a pay-off from the winner. Somebody has to be in the running for the vice-presidency, after all. And beyond all that, there is the code of the politician to remember: it is better to have run and lost, than never to have run at all.

The Economist (Reino Unido)

 


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16/11/2009|
30/10/2009|
30/10/2009|
11/10/2009|
10/10/2009|
10/10/2009|
07/10/2009|
07/10/2009|
04/10/2009|
30/09/2009|
30/09/2009|
27/09/2009|
27/09/2009|
27/09/2009|
22/09/2009|
20/09/2009|
18/09/2009|
18/09/2009|
18/09/2009|
16/09/2009|
16/09/2009|
16/09/2009|
08/09/2009|
07/09/2009|
06/09/2009|
06/09/2009|
05/09/2009|
05/09/2009|
26/08/2009|
21/08/2009|
19/08/2009|
19/08/2009|
15/08/2009|
15/08/2009|
15/08/2009|
11/08/2009|
11/08/2009|
11/08/2009|
11/08/2009|
19/07/2009|
19/07/2009|
18/07/2009|
18/07/2009|
27/03/2009|
22/03/2009|
22/03/2009|
27/01/2009|
27/01/2009|
27/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
11/01/2009|
06/12/2008|
06/12/2008|
06/12/2008|
06/12/2008|
23/11/2008|
23/11/2008|
16/11/2008|
16/11/2008|
04/11/2008|
04/11/2008|
03/11/2008|
03/11/2008|
24/10/2008|
24/10/2008|
24/10/2008|
24/10/2008|
15/09/2008|
15/09/2008|
15/09/2008|
15/09/2008|
15/09/2008|
15/09/2008|
06/09/2008|
06/09/2008|
05/09/2008|
05/09/2008|
05/09/2008|
05/09/2008|
01/09/2008|
01/09/2008|
01/09/2008|
01/09/2008|
22/08/2008|
22/08/2008|
17/08/2008|
17/08/2008|
16/08/2008|
16/08/2008|
28/07/2008|
28/07/2008|
28/07/2008|
28/07/2008|
28/07/2008|
28/07/2008|
19/07/2008|
19/07/2008|
24/05/2008|
24/05/2008|
03/05/2008|
03/05/2008|
29/04/2008|
11/02/2008|
05/01/2008|
09/12/2007|
18/11/2007|
10/11/2007|
10/11/2007|
06/11/2007|
06/11/2007|
06/09/2007|
26/08/2007|
25/08/2007|
11/07/2007|
16/06/2007|
16/06/2007|
10/06/2007|
10/06/2007|
19/05/2007|
19/05/2007|
19/05/2007|
19/05/2007|
24/04/2007|
24/04/2007|
14/04/2007|
14/04/2007|
05/04/2007|
05/04/2007|
05/04/2007|
28/02/2007|
28/02/2007|
05/02/2007|
05/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
29/01/2007|
29/01/2007|
29/01/2007|
29/01/2007|
11/01/2007|
11/01/2007|
11/01/2007|
11/01/2007|
27/12/2006|
27/12/2006|
27/12/2006|
27/12/2006|
27/12/2006|
27/12/2006|
20/12/2006|
20/12/2006|
17/11/2006|
30/09/2006|
28/07/2006|
12/04/2006|
12/04/2006|
12/04/2006|
06/03/2006|
21/02/2006|
17/02/2006|
31/01/2006|
10/01/2006|
28/12/2005|
31/10/2005|
26/09/2005|
29/08/2005|
11/08/2005|
08/08/2005|
24/06/2005|
24/06/2005|
24/06/2005|
03/04/2005|
03/04/2005|
03/04/2005|
03/04/2005|

ver + notas
 
Center for the Study of the Presidency
Freedom House