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03/04/2005 | Mostly peaceful, but hardly fair

The Economist Staff

Robert Mugabe’s ruling party, ZANU-PF, has won a two-thirds majority in Zimbabwe's parliamentary elections, allowing the president to fiddle with the constitution. With Mr Mugabe's lot tightening their grip on power, there is no end in sight to the hunger and disease gripping the country.

 

First the good news: the parliamentary elections held in Zimbabwe on Thursday March 31st were mostly peaceful. However, they were neither free nor fair and are unlikely to bring much change to the troubled southern African country. President Robert Mugabe’s ruling party, ZANU-PF, did well in the rural areas, especially in the north. Surprisingly, it also picked up a seat in the capital, Harare. The opposition Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) again collected most seats in urban areas. On Saturday, results from a few of the 120 contested single-member constituencies were still to be declared, but there was no doubt who will control parliament. Mr Mugabe gets to nominate an extra 30 (unelected) parliamentarians for his ruling party, so ZANU will run the show even if the MDC picks up more elected seats. Even better for Mr Mugabe, he has realised his ambition to control two-thirds of the seats, which allows him to alter the constitution to his advantage.

Though the election was far from perfect, there were some marked improvements on previous polls. Compared with the presidential election in 2002 and the last parliamentary one in 2000, there was little violence. (In the 2002 poll, for instance, police beat up opposition voters and blocked people from reaching polling stations.) The MDC campaigned in remote areas where it once was guaranteed violent attack. In constituencies where opposition supporters were murdered last time, things were tense but largely peaceful. Because of extra polling stations, there were none of the excessively long queues so common last time. And with many foreign journalists allowed in the country (a ban is usually enforced), plus some access to local media for the opposition, a case could be made for fairer reporting of events, though most local coverage was still skewed heavily in favour of the ruling party. Zimbabwe’s most prominent independent newspaper, the Daily News, was closed down some time ago.

But huge concerns remained. The voters’ roll was out of date, stuffed with the names of dead people (whose ghosts might be made to cast a ballot for the ruling party by corrupt officials). Perhaps 3m Zimbabweans who fled the country as refugees or economic migrants were told they could not cast postal ballots: out of a total electorate said to be 5.7m people, that is a huge share. Most of these are thought to be opposition supporters. Many of the most effective observer groups were barred from the elections: the European Union, the United States, a Southern African parliamentary group, South Africa’s main trade-union body and several others were told to stay away. And there were repeated and convincing reports that food was used to sway rural voters. Drought and an agricultural system destroyed by Mr Mugabe’s policy of grabbing commercial farms for his cronies mean the country faces an acute shortage of food. Some voters were told that anyone who backed the MDC would get no food aid after the election.

There were also several problems on the day. A local election observer group said more than 100,000 voters were turned away from polling stations because they lacked identification papers. Several foreign journalists were arrested while trying to report on the day’s events, including two Britons who lacked accreditation and could face two years in jail. In the centre of Harare, scores of local women who were praying peacefully for “divine intervention” in the poll were rounded up by police and dragged to the cells. Outside a few polling stations gangs of ZANU supporters threatened to beat those who dared vote MDC. In the countryside ill-educated voters were told that new transparent ballot boxes meant votes were not secret and anyone who backed the MDC would be punished.

Reactions to the election varied. The opposition leader, Morgan Tsvangirai, said the MDC had taken part reluctantly as it knew the polls would be neither free nor fair. On Friday, he denounced the election as fraudulent, claiming that in some constituencies more votes had been ascribed to ZANU than total votes cast. Before the final results were known, Mr Mugabe hinted that he had not wanted control of two-thirds of the seats in parliament after all. Few believed him. He will be delighted to have reached that threshold, since it means he can now rewrite the constitution to allow him to retire without triggering a new presidential election. That would make it easier for Mr Mugabe, now 81, to handpick and then impose a successor, probably the new vice-president, Joyce Mujuru, known during the liberation war of the 1970s as Comrade Spill Blood.

As for foreign observers, they are likely to follow a well-beaten path. The United States immediately issued a warning that the election, though more peaceful than the last one, could hardly be considered fair. Britain was likely to say the same. The European Union was expected to debate its response, with France eager to endorse Mr Mugabe’s win. But eventually the EU is likely to criticise the poll too. By contrast, fellow Africans, notably South Africa’s delegation and the regional Southern African Development Community, were likely to give the poll a clean bill of health.

All of which means that Mr Mugabe and his ZANU followers are sure to retain their grip on Zimbabwe, despite several years of economic collapse, hunger, corruption, a spiralling AIDS epidemic, chronic misrule and widespread hatred of the ruling party (which is itself sharply divided). In February, the Johannesburg-based Famine Early Warning System Network estimated that 5.8m Zimbabweans, in a population of around 11.5m, desperately need food aid—or they could starve. While the opposition movement continues its struggle for democracy, most of the population are merely struggling to survive.

Zimbabwe
White-only rule in Zimbabwe ended in 1980 when Robert Mugabe of the Zimbabwe African National Union (now ZANU-PF) became the country’s leader. Mr Mugabe and his party have ruled Zimbabwe ever since, but the once-respected resistance leader now uses thuggery to hang on to power. This has involved the stifling of free speech and the judiciary, and the repression of the opposition Movement for Democratic Change (MDC).

Starting in March 2000, Mr Mugabe's supporters began seizing land from white landowners. This helped ruin Zimbabwe's economy and created worsening food shortages. The EU passed “smart sanctions” aimed at Mr Mugabe and his cronies in February 2002, but this did not stop them from “winning” a crooked presidential election. In March 2002 the Commonwealth responded by suspending Zimbabwe, a decision that was prolonged in December 2003.

Mr Mugabe, who claims he will step down in 2008, is thought to have manipulated Zimbabwe's food supply and performed other dirty tricks to win the general election on March 31st 2005. Not surprisingly, the country's population is declining as Zimbabweans flee to neighbouring Zambia and South Africa. Dissent is meanwhile growing within the ZANU-PF.

The Economist (Reino Unido)

 



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08/02/2010|
28/01/2010|
25/01/2010|
20/01/2010|
20/01/2010|
16/01/2010|
16/01/2010|
15/01/2010|
15/01/2010|
11/01/2010|
11/01/2010|
10/01/2010|
07/01/2010|
03/01/2010|
03/01/2010|
03/01/2010|
17/12/2009|
15/12/2009|
15/12/2009|
13/12/2009|
13/12/2009|
28/11/2009|
28/11/2009|
28/11/2009|
28/11/2009|
27/11/2009|
27/11/2009|
27/11/2009|
27/11/2009|
27/11/2009|
27/11/2009|
21/11/2009|
21/11/2009|
18/11/2009|
18/11/2009|
16/11/2009|
16/11/2009|
30/10/2009|
30/10/2009|
11/10/2009|
10/10/2009|
10/10/2009|
07/10/2009|
07/10/2009|
04/10/2009|
30/09/2009|
30/09/2009|
27/09/2009|
27/09/2009|
27/09/2009|
22/09/2009|
20/09/2009|
18/09/2009|
18/09/2009|
18/09/2009|
16/09/2009|
16/09/2009|
16/09/2009|
08/09/2009|
07/09/2009|
06/09/2009|
06/09/2009|
05/09/2009|
05/09/2009|
26/08/2009|
21/08/2009|
19/08/2009|
19/08/2009|
15/08/2009|
15/08/2009|
15/08/2009|
11/08/2009|
11/08/2009|
11/08/2009|
11/08/2009|
19/07/2009|
19/07/2009|
18/07/2009|
18/07/2009|
27/03/2009|
22/03/2009|
22/03/2009|
27/01/2009|
27/01/2009|
27/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
11/01/2009|
06/12/2008|
06/12/2008|
06/12/2008|
06/12/2008|
23/11/2008|
23/11/2008|
16/11/2008|
16/11/2008|
04/11/2008|
04/11/2008|
03/11/2008|
03/11/2008|
24/10/2008|
24/10/2008|
24/10/2008|
24/10/2008|
15/09/2008|
15/09/2008|
15/09/2008|
15/09/2008|
15/09/2008|
15/09/2008|
06/09/2008|
06/09/2008|
05/09/2008|
05/09/2008|
05/09/2008|
05/09/2008|
01/09/2008|
01/09/2008|
01/09/2008|
01/09/2008|
22/08/2008|
22/08/2008|
17/08/2008|
17/08/2008|
16/08/2008|
16/08/2008|
28/07/2008|
28/07/2008|
28/07/2008|
28/07/2008|
28/07/2008|
28/07/2008|
19/07/2008|
19/07/2008|
24/05/2008|
24/05/2008|
03/05/2008|
03/05/2008|
29/04/2008|
11/02/2008|
05/01/2008|
09/12/2007|
18/11/2007|
10/11/2007|
10/11/2007|
06/11/2007|
06/11/2007|
06/09/2007|
26/08/2007|
25/08/2007|
11/07/2007|
16/06/2007|
16/06/2007|
10/06/2007|
10/06/2007|
19/05/2007|
19/05/2007|
19/05/2007|
19/05/2007|
24/04/2007|
24/04/2007|
14/04/2007|
14/04/2007|
05/04/2007|
05/04/2007|
05/04/2007|
28/02/2007|
28/02/2007|
05/02/2007|
05/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
29/01/2007|
29/01/2007|
29/01/2007|
29/01/2007|
11/01/2007|
11/01/2007|
11/01/2007|
11/01/2007|
27/12/2006|
27/12/2006|
27/12/2006|
27/12/2006|
27/12/2006|
27/12/2006|
20/12/2006|
20/12/2006|
17/11/2006|
30/09/2006|
28/07/2006|
12/04/2006|
12/04/2006|
12/04/2006|
06/03/2006|
21/02/2006|
17/02/2006|
31/01/2006|
10/01/2006|
28/12/2005|
31/10/2005|
26/09/2005|
29/08/2005|
11/08/2005|
08/08/2005|
24/06/2005|
24/06/2005|
24/06/2005|
03/04/2005|
03/04/2005|

ver + notas
 
Center for the Study of the Presidency
Freedom House